luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Steelers at Raiders, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Raiders 23–18, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.6 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:23 left): the Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 17 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 23
Las Vegas Raiders 18

September 24, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Luck index +43 Steelers lucky · −43 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Raiders win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 24 LV 0
  2. 2 PIT 46 LV 31
  3. 3 PIT 21 LV 10
  4. 4 PIT 30 LV 23
  5. 5 PIT 19 LV 15
  6. 6 PIT 22 LV 20
  7. 7 PIT 24 LV 26
  8. 8 PIT 10 LV 17
  9. 9 PIT 0 LV 13
  10. 10 PIT 13 LV 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 57% of them, Raiders 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+14.0%
Steelers by 9–1616.2%
Steelers by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation3.3%
Raiders by 1–819.1%
Raiders by 9–1612.4%
Raiders by 17+8.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 1.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Boswell, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Boswell, 57 yds made · 68% expected
  • D. Carlson, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:10 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:21 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +16% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakorian Bennett), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 135 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q2 4:02 Illegal Shift on the Steelers (George Pickens), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 987 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +11% LV LV: Punt
5 Q2 0:52 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% PIT LV: Punt
6 Q3 11:48 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 3:15 Leverage on the Steelers, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on the Raiders, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +9% LV LV: Field goal
8 Q4 0:23 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% LV LV: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chandler Jones (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 53% · Raiders 47%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
4.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 57% · Raiders 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Steelers · Raiders

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