luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Steelers at Raiders, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Raiders 23–18, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:02 left): Illegal Shift on the Steelers (George Pickens), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 23
Las Vegas Raiders 18

September 24, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Luck index +41 Steelers lucky · −41 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Raiders win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 41 LV 17
  2. 2 PIT 32 LV 16
  3. 3 PIT 30 LV 19
  4. 4 PIT 15 LV 7
  5. 5 PIT 17 LV 13
  6. 6 PIT 19 LV 17
  7. 7 PIT 19 LV 21
  8. 8 PIT 20 LV 27
  9. 9 PIT 13 LV 27
  10. 10 PIT 23 LV 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 59% of them, Raiders 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+15.5%
Steelers by 9–1616.6%
Steelers by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation3.3%
Raiders by 1–818.9%
Raiders by 9–1611.8%
Raiders by 17+9.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 5, without the luck Raiders by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Boswell, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Boswell, 57 yds made · 70% expected
  • D. Carlson, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 45 yards, Raiders 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:40 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (James Pierre), 10 yards +2% LV +0.8 pts
Q1 8:10 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 10:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +7% PIT +1.3 pts
Q2 7:53 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.4 pts
Q2 5:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakorian Bennett), 16 yards +8% PIT +2.1 pts
Q2 4:02 Illegal Shift on the Steelers (George Pickens), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +11% LV +2.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q4 7:50 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Cole Holcomb), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% PIT 0.0 pts
Q4 7:18 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 9 yards, wiping out the play +2% LV +1.2 pts
Q4 5:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Chandon Sullivan), 1 yard 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q4 3:15 Leverage on the Steelers, 15 yards +7% LV +3.1 pts
Q4 3:15 False Start on the Raiders, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:44 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% PIT PIT: Punt
2 Q2 10:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 24 flags in 4320 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +7% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q2 8:42 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% LV PIT: Field goal
4 Q2 5:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakorian Bennett), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 135 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q2 4:02 Illegal Shift on the Steelers (George Pickens), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 987 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +11% LV LV: Punt
6 Q2 0:52 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% PIT LV: Punt
7 Q3 14:55 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +7% LV LV: Punt
8 Q4 2:12 The Steelers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% PIT PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chandler Jones (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 41% · Raiders 59%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
5.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 59% · Raiders 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Steelers · Raiders

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