luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Texans at Jaguars, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 37–17, but the Jaguars played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.1 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:35 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 37
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

September 24, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −7.5

Luck index +69 Texans very lucky · −69 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 23 JAX 7
  2. 2 HOU 20 JAX 13
  3. 3 HOU 31 JAX 28
  4. 4 HOU 24 JAX 26
  5. 5 HOU 10 JAX 13
  6. 6 HOU 16 JAX 23
  7. 7 HOU 10 JAX 20
  8. 8 HOU 17 JAX 31
  9. 9 HOU 13 JAX 30
  10. 10 HOU 19 JAX 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 31% of them, Jaguars 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+3.4%
Texans by 9–168.0%
Texans by 1–816.0%
Level after regulation4.3%
Jaguars by 1–826.2%
Jaguars by 9–1621.3%
Jaguars by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 9.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 48 yds missed · 78% expected
  • B. McManus, 51 yds blocked · 72% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:36 B. McManus missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 48 of 66 from 45+ before +9% HOU JAX: Punt
2 Q2 12:48 C. Ridley dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 15 catchable balls before this +5% HOU JAX: Missed field goal
3 Q2 12:02 B. McManus had a 51-yard field goal blockedKicks · 72% expected for him, 48 of 67 from 45+ before +9% HOU JAX: Punt
4 Q2 1:13 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU JAX: Touchdown
5 Q3 9:30 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedN. Collins dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 54 catchable balls before this +8% JAX HOU: Punt
6 Q3 4:35 Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +14% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:28 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% HOU JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dawuane Smoot (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (HOU P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 79% · Jaguars 21%

Final margin
Texans by 20
Luck in points
10.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Texans 31% · Jaguars 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Texans · Jaguars

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