luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Titans at Browns, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Titans 27–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:29 left): the Titans converted 4th & 5, worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 3
Cleveland Browns 27

September 24, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −3.5

Luck index +4 Browns about even · −4 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Browns win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 7 CLE 10
  2. 2 TEN 14 CLE 20
  3. 3 TEN 13 CLE 22
  4. 4 TEN 3 CLE 14
  5. 5 TEN 7 CLE 21
  6. 6 TEN 7 CLE 23
  7. 7 TEN 0 CLE 19
  8. 8 TEN 2 CLE 24
  9. 9 TEN 6 CLE 32
  10. 10 TEN 2 CLE 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 4% of them, Browns 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.0%
Titans by 9–160.6%
Titans by 1–82.7%
Level after regulation0.5%
Browns by 1–89.2%
Browns by 9–1622.3%
Browns by 17+64.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 11.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 52 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:35 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% TEN CLE: Field goal
2 Q1 1:29 The Browns fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TEN CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:38 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TEN TEN: Field goal
4 Q2 12:05 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1715 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 969 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q2 0:50 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% TEN TEN: End of half
8 Q2 0:29 The Titans converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% TEN TEN: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 11% · Browns 89%

Final margin
Browns by 24
Luck in points
12.7 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 4% · Browns 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Titans · Browns

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