luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Chargers at Vikings, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Vikings 28–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:12 left): the Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 36 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 28
Minnesota Vikings 24

September 24, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +52 Chargers lucky · −52 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 5, Vikings win 5.

  1. 1 LAC 41 MIN 17
  2. 2 LAC 20 MIN 6
  3. 3 LAC 38 MIN 30
  4. 4 LAC 25 MIN 21
  5. 5 LAC 31 MIN 29
  6. 6 LAC 32 MIN 34
  7. 7 LAC 14 MIN 20
  8. 8 LAC 24 MIN 34
  9. 9 LAC 23 MIN 38
  10. 10 LAC 21 MIN 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 48% of them, Vikings 52%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+10.7%
Chargers by 9–1613.9%
Chargers by 1–821.4%
Level after regulation5.7%
Vikings by 1–822.0%
Vikings by 9–1614.8%
Vikings by 17+11.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 11.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Dicker, 53 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:41 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% LAC MIN: Punt
2 Q2 0:50 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +15% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:09 The Vikings converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +19% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Keenan Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 3500 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +24% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 8:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +16% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:58 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +21% LAC MIN: Turnover
7 Q4 1:51 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +31% MIN LAC: End of game
8 Q4 0:12 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +36% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.3 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 91% · Vikings 9%

Final margin
Chargers by 4
Luck in points
7.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 11.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 48% · Vikings 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Chargers · Vikings

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