luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Broncos at Dolphins, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Broncos 70–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:21 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Brandon Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Denver Broncos 20
Miami Dolphins 70

September 24, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −6

Luck index +2 Dolphins about even · −2 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 DEN 34 MIA 37
  2. 2 DEN 26 MIA 33
  3. 3 DEN 24 MIA 37
  4. 4 DEN 13 MIA 30
  5. 5 DEN 32 MIA 51
  6. 6 DEN 31 MIA 54
  7. 7 DEN 29 MIA 55
  8. 8 DEN 12 MIA 43
  9. 9 DEN 27 MIA 62
  10. 10 DEN 13 MIA 57

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 2% of them, Dolphins 98%. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 50.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.1%
Broncos by 9–160.4%
Broncos by 1–81.5%
Level after regulation0.4%
Dolphins by 1–83.8%
Dolphins by 9–1610.3%
Dolphins by 17+83.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 50. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 43.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Lutz, 25 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:22 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% MIA DEN: Punt
2 Q1 1:21 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:33 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DEN DEN: Field goal
4 Q2 12:48 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Brandon Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 279 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 4:52 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +6% DEN MIA: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:47 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:45 The Broncos fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% MIA DEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Robert Jones (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Keion Crossen (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • K'Waun Williams (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Dulcich (DEN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 0% · Dolphins 100%

Final margin
Dolphins by 50
Luck in points
6.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 43.4
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 2% · Dolphins 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Broncos · Dolphins

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