luckadjusted

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Colts at Ravens, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Ravens 22–19, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.2 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): J. Tucker missed 61-yard field goal, worth 52 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 22
Baltimore Ravens 19

September 24, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +67 Colts very lucky · −67 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 3, Ravens win 7.

  1. 1 IND 35 BAL 16
  2. 2 IND 30 BAL 20
  3. 3 IND 30 BAL 27
  4. 4 IND 13 BAL 15
  5. 5 IND 27 BAL 33
  6. 6 IND 30 BAL 40
  7. 7 IND 13 BAL 26
  8. 8 IND 19 BAL 36
  9. 9 IND 13 BAL 34
  10. 10 IND 10 BAL 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 33% of them, Ravens 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+5.7%
Colts by 9–169.5%
Colts by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation3.0%
Ravens by 1–821.9%
Ravens by 9–1618.8%
Ravens by 17+25.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Tucker, 61 yds missed · 61% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 2:05 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +16% BAL IND: Field goal
2 Q4 1:07 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedFalse Start on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +17% BAL IND: Field goal
3 Q4 0:18 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +42% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
4 Q4 0:06 J. Tucker missed 61-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 45 of 58 from 45+ before +52% IND BAL: Punt
5 QOT 7:09 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +18% IND BAL: Punt
6 QOT 3:28 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedI. Likely dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 50 catchable balls before this +38% IND BAL: Turnover on downs
7 QOT 3:25 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +29% BAL –
8 QOT 1:14 M. Gay made 53-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 33 of 43 from 45+ before +28% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tyler Linderbaum (BAL C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Darrell Baker (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 26% · Ravens 74%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
9.6 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Colts 33% · Ravens 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Colts · Ravens

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