luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2023 · September 24, 2023

Colts at Ravens, Week 3 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Ravens 22–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Colts win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 95 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:06 left): J. Tucker missed a 61-yard field goal, worth 51 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 22
Baltimore Ravens 19

September 24, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +50 Colts lucky · −50 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 5, Ravens win 5.

  1. 1 IND 44 BAL 22
  2. 2 IND 33 BAL 19
  3. 3 IND 23 BAL 13
  4. 4 IND 12 BAL 6
  5. 5 IND 37 BAL 35
  6. 6 IND 29 BAL 31
  7. 7 IND 20 BAL 26
  8. 8 IND 15 BAL 25
  9. 9 IND 22 BAL 37
  10. 10 IND 13 BAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 50% of them, Ravens 50%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+13.2%
Colts by 9–1614.5%
Colts by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation4.7%
Ravens by 1–818.1%
Ravens by 9–1615.1%
Ravens by 17+14.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.8 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 3, without the luck Ravens by 7.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Tucker, 61 yds missed · 60% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 6 for 31 yards, Ravens 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 3:30 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL 0.0 pts
Q2 0:47 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q3 13:33 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 7:51 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Nick Cross), 10 yards +3% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 3:30 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 5 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 2:11 False Start on the Colts, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.3 pts
Q4 1:07 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.7 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 2:05 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% BAL IND: Field goal
2 Q4 1:07 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedFalse Start on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +18% BAL IND: Field goal
3 Q4 0:18 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +45% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
4 Q4 0:06 The game turned hereJ. Tucker missed a 61-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 45 of 58 from 45+ before +51% IND BAL: Punt
5 OT 5:01 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +15% BAL IND: Turnover on downs
6 OT 3:28 I. Likely dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 50 catchable balls before this +29% IND BAL: Turnover on downs
7 OT 3:25 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +29% BAL –
8 OT 1:14 M. Gay made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 33 of 43 from 45+ before +28% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tyler Linderbaum (BAL C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Darrell Baker (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 22% · Ravens 78%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
10.8 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Colts 50% · Ravens 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2023 games · Colts · Ravens

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