luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · September 21, 2023–September 25

Week 3 2023: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the Jaguars 37–17 in a game they win 32% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 3 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 28–16 vs Cowboys 20% 79% Deserved
Texans 37–17 @ Jaguars 29% 32% Lucky
Colts 22–19 @ Ravens 29% 50% Coin flip
Steelers 23–18 @ Raiders 41% 59% Coin flip
Packers 18–17 vs Saints 46% 71% Deserved
Chargers 28–24 @ Vikings 47% 48% Coin flip

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 19–16 vs Rams 30% +70
2 Texans W 37–17 @ Jaguars 32% +68
3 Chargers W 28–24 @ Vikings 48% +52
4 Colts W 22–19 @ Ravens 50% +50
5 Steelers W 23–18 @ Raiders 59% +41
6 Packers W 18–17 vs Saints 71% +29
7 Cardinals W 28–16 vs Cowboys 79% +21
8 Seahawks W 37–27 vs Panthers 85% +15
9 Patriots W 15–10 @ Jets 86% +14
10 49ers W 30–12 vs Giants 91% +9
11 Bills W 37–3 @ Commanders 94% +6
12 Eagles W 25–11 @ Buccaneers 94% +6
13 Lions W 20–6 vs Falcons 98% +2
14 Browns W 27–3 vs Titans 99% +1
15 Chiefs W 41–10 vs Bears 99% +1
16 Dolphins W 70–20 vs Broncos 99% +1
17 Broncos L 20–70 @ Dolphins 1% −1
18 Bears L 10–41 @ Chiefs 1% −1
19 Titans L 3–27 @ Browns 1% −1
20 Falcons L 6–20 @ Lions 2% −2
21 Buccaneers L 11–25 vs Eagles 6% −6
22 Commanders L 3–37 vs Bills 6% −6
23 Giants L 12–30 @ 49ers 9% −9
24 Jets L 10–15 vs Patriots 14% −14
25 Panthers L 27–37 @ Seahawks 15% −15
26 Cowboys L 16–28 @ Cardinals 21% −21
27 Saints L 17–18 @ Packers 29% −29
28 Raiders L 18–23 vs Steelers 41% −41
29 Ravens L 19–22 vs Colts 50% −50
30 Vikings L 24–28 vs Chargers 52% −52
31 Jaguars L 17–37 vs Texans 68% −68
32 Rams L 16–19 @ Bengals 70% −70