2023 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2023: game by game

The Raiders went 8–9 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Broncos	W 17–16	41%	+59
Week 2	@ Bills	L 10–38	16%	−16
Week 3	vs Steelers	L 18–23	43%	−43
Week 4	@ Chargers	L 17–24	11%	−11
Week 5	vs Packers	W 17–13	81%	+19
Week 6	vs Patriots	W 21–17	95%	+5
Week 7	@ Bears	L 12–30	24%	−24
Week 8	@ Lions	L 14–26	8%	−8
Week 9	vs Giants	W 30–6	96%	+4
Week 10	vs Jets	W 16–12	48%	+52
Week 11	@ Dolphins	L 13–20	11%	−11
Week 12	vs Chiefs	L 17–31	18%	−18
Week 14	vs Vikings	L 0–3	12%	−12
Week 15	vs Chargers	W 63–21	87%	+13
Week 16	@ Chiefs	W 20–14	73%	+27
Week 17	@ Colts	L 20–23	40%	−40
Week 18	vs Broncos	W 27–14	82%	+18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +59 @ DEN

Wk 2 −16 @ BUF

Wk 3 −43 vs PIT

Wk 4 −11 @ LAC

Wk 5 +19 vs GB

Wk 6 +5 vs NE

Wk 7 −24 @ CHI

Wk 8 −8 @ DET

Wk 9 +4 vs NYG

Wk 10 +52 vs NYJ

Wk 11 −11 @ MIA

Wk 12 −18 vs KC

Wk 14 −12 vs MIN

Wk 15 +13 vs LAC

Wk 16 +27 @ KC

Wk 17 −40 @ IND

Wk 18 +18 vs DEN

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+29.7	+1.75
Drops	+9.0	+0.53
Fumble bounces	+6.3	+0.37
Injuries	+3.5	+0.21
Rest	−1.0	−0.06
Kicks	−2.8	−0.16
3rd & 4th downs	−9.0	−0.53