2023 season · final
Las Vegas Raiders, 2023: game by game
The Raiders went 8–9 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Every game
How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Broncos | W 17–16 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 2 | @ Bills | L 10–38 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 3 | vs Steelers | L 18–23 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 4 | @ Chargers | L 17–24 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 5 | vs Packers | W 17–13 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 6 | vs Patriots | W 21–17 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 7 | @ Bears | L 12–30 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 8 | @ Lions | L 14–26 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 9 | vs Giants | W 30–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 10 | vs Jets | W 16–12 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 11 | @ Dolphins | L 13–20 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 12 | vs Chiefs | L 17–31 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 14 | vs Vikings | L 0–3 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 15 | vs Chargers | W 63–21 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 16 | @ Chiefs | W 20–14 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 17 | @ Colts | L 20–23 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 18 | vs Broncos | W 27–14 | 81% | +19 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.46 | +8.5 |
| Judgment calls | +0.36 | +12.0 |
| Injuries | +0.11 | +2.6 |
| Drops | +0.07 | +5.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.25 | −7.2 |
| Kicks | −0.49 | −2.6 |