luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Raiders at Bills, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Raiders 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 71% favorites.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 10
Buffalo Bills 38

September 17, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −7.5

Luck index +16 Bills about even · −16 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Bills win 8.

  1. 1 LV 30 BUF 19
  2. 2 LV 13 BUF 10
  3. 3 LV 20 BUF 22
  4. 4 LV 20 BUF 24
  5. 5 LV 26 BUF 33
  6. 6 LV 20 BUF 30
  7. 7 LV 13 BUF 27
  8. 8 LV 24 BUF 41
  9. 9 LV 3 BUF 23
  10. 10 LV 17 BUF 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 16% of them, Bills 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.8%
Raiders by 9–163.6%
Raiders by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation0.9%
Bills by 1–826.2%
Bills by 9–1624.3%
Bills by 17+33.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 17.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • T. Bass, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +6% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:22 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% BUF LV: Punt
3 Q1 5:52 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% LV BUF: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:09 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:24 The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% LV LV: Field goal
6 Q2 6:59 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +4% BUF LV: Field goal
7 Q2 3:01 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedThe Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% LV BUF: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:01 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chandler Jones (LV DE), out · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 28
Luck in points
10.3 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 17.7
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 16% · Bills 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Raiders · Bills

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