luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Jets at Cowboys, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Jets 30–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.4 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 74% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 10
Dallas Cowboys 30

September 17, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −8.5

Luck index +6 Cowboys about even · −6 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 13 DAL 7
  2. 2 NYJ 19 DAL 22
  3. 3 NYJ 17 DAL 23
  4. 4 NYJ 13 DAL 23
  5. 5 NYJ 17 DAL 29
  6. 6 NYJ 7 DAL 23
  7. 7 NYJ 10 DAL 29
  8. 8 NYJ 3 DAL 26
  9. 9 NYJ 13 DAL 41
  10. 10 NYJ 7 DAL 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 6% of them, Cowboys 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.3%
Jets by 9–161.4%
Jets by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.6%
Cowboys by 1–813.8%
Cowboys by 9–1619.5%
Cowboys by 17+60.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 10.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • A. Seibert, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 55 yds made · 62% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:12 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:56 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% DAL NYJ: Punt
3 Q1 3:26 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
4 Q1 0:54 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 2 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 2945 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +4% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q2 5:47 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:54 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1962 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Brandin Echols), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1129 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:39 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% DAL DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyler Smith (DAL T), out · 1.5 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 13% · Cowboys 87%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
9.6 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 6% · Cowboys 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Jets · Cowboys

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