luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Jets at Cowboys, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Jets 30–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 74% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 10
Dallas Cowboys 30

September 17, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −8.5

Luck index +6 Cowboys about even · −6 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 23 DAL 17
  2. 2 NYJ 38 DAL 40
  3. 3 NYJ 7 DAL 13
  4. 4 NYJ 23 DAL 31
  5. 5 NYJ 24 DAL 35
  6. 6 NYJ 3 DAL 17
  7. 7 NYJ 13 DAL 30
  8. 8 NYJ 9 DAL 30
  9. 9 NYJ 21 DAL 47
  10. 10 NYJ 6 DAL 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 6% of them, Cowboys 94%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.3%
Jets by 9–160.9%
Jets by 1–84.2%
Level after regulation0.4%
Cowboys by 1–811.3%
Cowboys by 9–1621.1%
Cowboys by 17+61.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.9 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 20, without the luck Cowboys by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Seibert, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 55 yds made · 63% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 5 for 29 yards, Cowboys 6 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:01 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q1 0:54 False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 2 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q2 2:54 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 6 yards +4% DAL +1.8 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Brandin Echols), 12 yards +8% DAL +2.9 pts
Q2 1:56 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 1 yard 0% DAL +0.1 pts
Q3 14:16 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.3 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q4 9:24 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYJ +3.1 pts
Q4 7:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Stephon Gilmore), 10 yards 0% NYJ +2.9 pts
Q4 7:21 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 3:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 6 yards 0% NYJ +2.9 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:12 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:54 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 2 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 2945 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +4% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q2 11:14 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q2 5:47 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:54 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1962 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Brandin Echols), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1129 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:39 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% DAL DAL: Field goal
8 Q3 5:24 B. Aubrey made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +4% DAL DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyler Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 11% · Cowboys 89%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
11.9 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Jets 6% · Cowboys 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Jets · Cowboys

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