luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Chargers at Titans, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Chargers 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Chargers 24
Tennessee Titans 27

September 17, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +40 Titans lucky · −40 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 4, Titans win 6.

  1. 1 LAC 26 TEN 7
  2. 2 LAC 19 TEN 7
  3. 3 LAC 27 TEN 21
  4. 4 LAC 13 TEN 10
  5. 5 LAC 38 TEN 39
  6. 6 LAC 24 TEN 27
  7. 7 LAC 10 TEN 17
  8. 8 LAC 17 TEN 27
  9. 9 LAC 23 TEN 37
  10. 10 LAC 9 TEN 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 40% of them, Titans 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+6.8%
Chargers by 9–1613.3%
Chargers by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation2.3%
Titans by 1–826.7%
Titans by 9–1616.6%
Titans by 17+15.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 0.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:52 The Chargers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +12% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q2 8:24 The Chargers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 1 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3516 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +14% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2252 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +13% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:25 The Titans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +14% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:21 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +16% TEN LAC: Field goal
6 Q4 0:03 C. Dicker made 33-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +14% LAC LAC: Punt
7 QOT 10:00 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% LAC LAC: Punt
8 QOT 5:06 N. Folk made 41-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +12% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 59% · Titans 41%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
3.2 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 40% · Titans 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Chargers · Titans

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