Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023
Chargers at Titans, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Chargers 27–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Chargers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final (OT)
 Los Angeles Chargers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Titans lucky · −26 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Titans win 7.
- 1 LAC 27 TEN 10
- 2 LAC 19 TEN 10
- 3 LAC 41 TEN 38
- 4 LAC 14 TEN 16
- 5 LAC 12 TEN 16
- 6 LAC 23 TEN 31
- 7 LAC 6 TEN 17
- 8 LAC 13 TEN 27
- 9 LAC 20 TEN 40
- 10 LAC 9 TEN 35
Your call
Did the Titans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chargers
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.10 | worse by 0.01 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.14 | better by 0.13 |
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.06 | worse by 0.05 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.09 | better by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 26% of them, Titans 74%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 3.6% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 13.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Titans by 17+ | 25.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Dicker, 30 yds made · 96% expected
- N. Folk, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- N. Folk, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Penalties: Chargers 4 for 43 yards, Titans 7 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:31 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Tre Avery), 10 yards | +3% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:02 | False Start on the Titans (Trevon Wesco), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:13 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Titans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 14 yards | +4% LAC +1.7 pts |
| Q2 8:24 | Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 1 yard | 0% LAC +0.1 pts |
| Q3 11:31 | False Start on the Titans (Josh Whyle), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards | +13% TEN +2.3 pts |
| Q3 10:19 | Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 12 yards | +5% TEN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 1:59 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 9 yards | +1% TEN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 13:15 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:55 | Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Kenneth Murray), 7 yards | +9% TEN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:36 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (Arden Key), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LAC +0.3 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:24 | The Chargers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 1 yardJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3516 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +12% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 11:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2252 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 | +13% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 7:30 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +9% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 2:25 | The Titans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +10% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 0:21 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +16% TEN | LAC: Field goal |
| 6 | OT 10:00 | The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws | +13% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 7 | OT 9:49 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +10% TEN | LAC: Punt |
| 8 | OT 5:06 | N. Folk made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +11% TEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 42% · Titans 58%
- Final margin
- Titans by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.2 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 26% · Titans 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · 
Chargers · 
Titans
More from Week 2 2023
- Vikings at Eagles PHI 34–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Bears at Buccaneers TB 27–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Packers at Falcons ATL 25–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Colts at Texans IND 31–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars KC 17–9 · replay 34% for the winner
- Raiders at Bills BUF 38–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Seahawks at Lions SEA 37–31 · replay 67% for the winner
- Giants at Cardinals NYG 31–28 · replay 84% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 30–23 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Cowboys DAL 30–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Commanders at Broncos WAS 35–33 · replay 49% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 24–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 20–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 26–22 · replay 46% for the winner