luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Packers at Falcons, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Packers 25–24, but the replays lean toward the Packers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:16 left): M. Hollins dropped a catchable pass, worth 18 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 24
Atlanta Falcons 25

September 17, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +61 Falcons very lucky · −61 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 6, Falcons win 4.

  1. 1 GB 37 ATL 10
  2. 2 GB 41 ATL 24
  3. 3 GB 35 ATL 23
  4. 4 GB 27 ATL 20
  5. 5 GB 41 ATL 37
  6. 6 GB 9 ATL 7
  7. 7 GB 26 ATL 29
  8. 8 GB 20 ATL 28
  9. 9 GB 21 ATL 34
  10. 10 GB 6 ATL 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 61% of them, Falcons 39%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+14.8%
Packers by 9–1615.8%
Packers by 1–828.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Falcons by 1–819.8%
Falcons by 9–1613.0%
Falcons by 17+6.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Packers: the final margin was Falcons by 1, without the luck Falcons by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Carlson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • Y. Koo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • Y. Koo, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 7 for 40 yards, Falcons 6 for 110 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 44 yards +10% GB +3.0 pts
Q1 14:06 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q1 14:02 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +1.5 pts
Q1 4:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Rudy Ford), 1 yard +1% ATL +0.2 pts
Q1 3:53 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +2.1 pts
Q2 13:28 Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons, 8 yards +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards +2% GB +0.8 pts
Q3 11:04 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Ta'Quon Graham), 5 yards +1% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 3:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Tre Flowers), 43 yards +8% GB +2.7 pts
Q3 0:56 Encroachment on the Packers (Karl Brooks), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 0:11 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +1% ATL +0.4 pts
Q4 11:03 Face Mask on the Packers, 15 yards +2% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 6:18 False Start on the Packers (Jordan Love), 4 yards · pre-snap +6% ATL +0.7 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 44 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2958 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% GB GB: Punt
2 Q2 0:35 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% GB ATL: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Tre Flowers), 43 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3216 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:54 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:16 M. Hollins dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 72 catchable balls before this +18% GB ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 4:59 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 2:08 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:42 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 1.4 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Aaron Jones (GB RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 5% · Falcons 95%

Final margin
Falcons by 1
Luck in points
5.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 61% · Falcons 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Packers · Falcons

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