Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023
Bears at Buccaneers, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Bears 27–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Bears.
An off day for the Bears: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:12 left): Return touchdown by the Buccaneers, worth 23 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 17 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Buccaneers about even · −5 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 0, Buccaneers win 10.
- 1 CHI 23 TB 26
- 2 CHI 20 TB 26
- 3 CHI 17 TB 27
- 4 CHI 14 TB 25
- 5 CHI 17 TB 30
- 6 CHI 10 TB 26
- 7 CHI 0 TB 19
- 8 CHI 23 TB 45
- 9 CHI 0 TB 25
- 10 CHI 0 TB 30
Your call
Did the Buccaneers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bears
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.07 | worse by 0.01 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.19 | worse by 0.05 |
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.04 | better by 0.19 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.09 | better by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 5% of them, Buccaneers 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 3.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 8.6% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 66.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 40 yds blocked · 87% expected
- C. Santos, 52 yds made · 66% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 25 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Bears 5 for 28 yards, Buccaneers 7 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:58 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards | +10% CHI +2.2 pts |
| Q1 0:19 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:19 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q2 4:57 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Greg Stroman), 7 yards | +3% TB +1.0 pts |
| Q3 13:18 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:42 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Josh Hayes), 10 yards | +3% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:31 | Defensive Offside on the Bears (Yannick Ngakoue), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:05 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards | +2% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:27 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:24 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:18 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Chase Claypool), 6 yards, wiping out the play | +13% TB +1.0 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:31 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:58 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +10% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:37 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +11% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:56 | C. McLaughlin had a 40-yard field goal blockedKicks · 87% expected for him | +15% CHI | TB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:31 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +9% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 4:14 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +8% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:18 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Chase Claypool), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2485 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +13% TB | TB: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:12 | The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams | +23% TB | CHI: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 0% · Buccaneers 100%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 10
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 17.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 5% · Buccaneers 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · 
Bears · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 2 2023
- Vikings at Eagles PHI 34–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 27–24 · replay 70% for the winner
- Packers at Falcons ATL 25–24 · replay 39% for the winner
- Colts at Texans IND 31–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars KC 17–9 · replay 34% for the winner
- Chargers at Titans TEN 27–24 · replay 74% for the winner
- Raiders at Bills BUF 38–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Seahawks at Lions SEA 37–31 · replay 67% for the winner
- Giants at Cardinals NYG 31–28 · replay 84% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 30–23 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Cowboys DAL 30–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Commanders at Broncos WAS 35–33 · replay 49% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 24–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 20–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 26–22 · replay 46% for the winner