luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Bears at Buccaneers, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Bears 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 5.1 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:12 left): Return touchdown by the Buccaneers, worth 23 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Chicago Bears 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

September 17, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +5 Buccaneers about even · −5 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 21 TB 17
  2. 2 CHI 10 TB 13
  3. 3 CHI 13 TB 19
  4. 4 CHI 10 TB 20
  5. 5 CHI 17 TB 29
  6. 6 CHI 7 TB 22
  7. 7 CHI 10 TB 28
  8. 8 CHI 3 TB 24
  9. 9 CHI 7 TB 31
  10. 10 CHI 10 TB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 5% of them, Buccaneers 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.2%
Bears by 9–161.0%
Bears by 1–84.0%
Level after regulation0.8%
Buccaneers by 1–813.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.1%
Buccaneers by 17+59.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 18.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 40 yds blocked · 86% expected
  • C. Santos, 52 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 25 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:31 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q1 11:58 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:37 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +12% TB TB: Field goal
4 Q2 14:56 C. McLaughlin had a 40-yard field goal blockedKicks · 86% expected for him +15% CHI TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:31 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q3 4:14 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +13% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Chase Claypool), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2485 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +13% TB TB: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 2:12 The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +23% TB CHI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 10
Luck in points
8.7 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 18.7
Replay with same day's form
Bears 5% · Buccaneers 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Bears · Buccaneers

More from Week 2 2023