luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2023 · September 14, 2023

Vikings at Eagles, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Vikings 34–28, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
Philadelphia Eagles 34

September 14, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +37 Eagles lucky · −37 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Eagles win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 33 PHI 12
  2. 2 MIN 31 PHI 19
  3. 3 MIN 27 PHI 21
  4. 4 MIN 21 PHI 19
  5. 5 MIN 21 PHI 23
  6. 6 MIN 36 PHI 40
  7. 7 MIN 20 PHI 29
  8. 8 MIN 20 PHI 33
  9. 9 MIN 12 PHI 30
  10. 10 MIN 7 PHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 37% of them, Eagles 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+6.8%
Vikings by 9–1610.8%
Vikings by 1–817.6%
Level after regulation2.2%
Eagles by 1–826.2%
Eagles by 9–1618.7%
Eagles by 17+17.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 6, without the luck Eagles by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 55 yds missed · 63% expected
  • J. Elliott, 61 yds made · 51% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 2 for 15 yards, Eagles 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:24 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.6 pts
Q1 0:06 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Fletcher Cox), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 8:35 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIN +2.7 pts
Q3 7:30 False Start on the Eagles (D'Andre Swift), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +1.0 pts
Q3 0:09 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Harrison Phillips), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +1.2 pts
Q4 13:04 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Rashaad Penny), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIN +3.6 pts
Q4 3:46 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% PHI +1.6 pts
Q4 1:55 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Kentavius Street), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% MIN +2.6 pts
Q4 0:15 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.1 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 3:04 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +4% MIN PHI: Missed field goal
3 Q1 2:58 The Vikings fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI MIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:48 J. Elliott missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 21 of 31 from 45+ before +6% MIN PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:23 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:41 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:19 The Vikings converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% MIN MIN: Turnover
8 Q3 14:33 The Vikings fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% PHI MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Reed Blankenship (PHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 43% · Eagles 57%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
4.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 37% · Eagles 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Vikings · Eagles

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