luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 14, 2023

Vikings at Eagles, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Vikings 34–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.7 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:04 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 16, worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
Philadelphia Eagles 34

September 14, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +19 Eagles about even · −19 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 27 PHI 13
  2. 2 MIN 41 PHI 37
  3. 3 MIN 24 PHI 27
  4. 4 MIN 26 PHI 31
  5. 5 MIN 28 PHI 36
  6. 6 MIN 24 PHI 35
  7. 7 MIN 18 PHI 34
  8. 8 MIN 10 PHI 30
  9. 9 MIN 14 PHI 38
  10. 10 MIN 0 PHI 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 19% of them, Eagles 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+2.3%
Vikings by 9–165.4%
Vikings by 1–810.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
Eagles by 1–823.4%
Eagles by 9–1622.8%
Eagles by 17+34.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 55 yds missed · 62% expected
  • J. Elliott, 61 yds made · 53% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 3:04 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% MIN PHI: Missed field goal
3 Q1 2:58 The Vikings fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI MIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:29 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% MIN PHI: Missed field goal
5 Q1 0:48 J. Elliott missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 21 of 31 from 45+ before +6% MIN PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:23 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:41 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 14:33 The Vikings fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% PHI MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Reed Blankenship (PHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 25% · Eagles 75%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
0.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 19% · Eagles 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Vikings · Eagles

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