luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Seahawks at Lions, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Lions 37–31 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 7.1 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:14 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 34 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final (OT)

Seattle Seahawks 37
Detroit Lions 31

September 17, 2023 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −4.5

Luck index +33 Seahawks lucky · −33 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 7, Lions win 3.

  1. 1 SEA 41 DET 13
  2. 2 SEA 41 DET 23
  3. 3 SEA 36 DET 21
  4. 4 SEA 50 DET 39
  5. 5 SEA 41 DET 34
  6. 6 SEA 45 DET 41
  7. 7 SEA 26 DET 24
  8. 8 SEA 28 DET 31
  9. 9 SEA 9 DET 17
  10. 10 SEA 16 DET 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 67% of them, Lions 33%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+23.5%
Seahawks by 9–1619.6%
Seahawks by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation4.0%
Lions by 1–815.4%
Lions by 9–168.9%
Lions by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 12.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 45 yds missed · 85% expected
  • J. Myers, 56 yds missed · 66% expected
  • J. Myers, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Patterson, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:28 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:42 J. Myers missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him, 26 of 34 from 45+ before +10% DET SEA: Punt
3 Q3 13:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Josh Reynolds), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2587 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
4 Q4 12:01 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:14 The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +34% SEA DET: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Colby Parkinson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1153 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +19% DET DET: Field goal
7 Q4 0:23 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +15% SEA DET: Field goal
8 QOT 8:35 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +23% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Isaiah Buggs (DET DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Cross (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 94% · Lions 6%

Final margin
Seahawks by 6
Luck in points
6.3 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 67% · Lions 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Seahawks · Lions

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