2023 season · final
Atlanta Falcons, 2023: game by game
The Falcons went 7–10 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.0 wins. Luck cost them 2.0: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.
Every game
How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Panthers | W 24–10 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 2 | vs Packers | W 25–24 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 3 | @ Lions | L 6–20 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 4 | vs Jaguars | L 7–23 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 5 | vs Texans | W 21–19 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 6 | vs Commanders | L 16–24 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 7 | @ Buccaneers | W 16–13 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 8 | @ Titans | L 23–28 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 9 | vs Vikings | L 28–31 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 10 | @ Cardinals | L 23–25 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 12 | vs Saints | W 24–15 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 13 | @ Jets | W 13–8 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 14 | vs Buccaneers | L 25–29 | 77% | −77 |
| Week 15 | @ Panthers | L 7–9 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 16 | vs Colts | W 29–10 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 17 | @ Bears | L 17–37 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 18 | @ Saints | L 17–48 | 27% | −27 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.42 | +14.6 |
| Judgment calls | +0.36 | +11.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.04 | +6.4 |
| Rest | −0.07 | −2.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.14 | −16.5 |
| Kicks | −0.23 | −19.1 |
| Drops | −0.50 | −12.4 |