luckadjusted

Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023

Falcons at Panthers, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 9–7, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 2.6 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:33 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 7
Carolina Panthers 9

December 17, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +44 Panthers lucky · −44 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 21 CAR 3
  2. 2 ATL 24 CAR 12
  3. 3 ATL 17 CAR 10
  4. 4 ATL 12 CAR 9
  5. 5 ATL 14 CAR 16
  6. 6 ATL 13 CAR 17
  7. 7 ATL 3 CAR 10
  8. 8 ATL 10 CAR 20
  9. 9 ATL 6 CAR 19
  10. 10 ATL 0 CAR 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 44% of them, Panthers 56%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+8.0%
Falcons by 9–1612.8%
Falcons by 1–822.1%
Level after regulation7.2%
Panthers by 1–823.3%
Panthers by 9–1616.6%
Panthers by 17+10.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 2.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 11:32 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% ATL ATL: Punt
2 Q3 5:28 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CAR CAR: Punt
3 Q3 4:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 3669 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +13% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q3 3:04 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% ATL ATL: Turnover
5 Q3 1:33 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +23% CAR ATL: Turnover
6 Q4 13:39 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedA. Thielen dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 182 catchable balls before this +14% ATL CAR: Field goal
7 Q4 7:44 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% CAR –
8 Q4 0:01 E. Pineiro made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +13% CAR –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dicaprio Bootle (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chris Lindstrom (ATL G), out · 0.6 pts
  • David Onyemata (ATL DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kentavius Street (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 49% · Panthers 51%

Final margin
Panthers by 2
Luck in points
4.5 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 44% · Panthers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Falcons · Panthers

More from Week 15 2023