Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023
Texans at Titans, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?
The Texans beat the Titans 19–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 8.1 points to the Titans.
An off day for the Titans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:45 left): the Titans got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 44 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final (OT)
 Houston Texans | 19 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Texans about even · −16 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texans win 8, Titans win 2.
- 1 HOU 40 TEN 9
- 2 HOU 27 TEN 3
- 3 HOU 20 TEN 0
- 4 HOU 25 TEN 10
- 5 HOU 24 TEN 12
- 6 HOU 24 TEN 16
- 7 HOU 20 TEN 16
- 8 HOU 12 TEN 10
- 9 HOU 10 TEN 14
- 10 HOU 10 TEN 22
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Titans
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.03 | worse by 0.04 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.13 | +0.11 | better by 0.24 |
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.13 | +0.05 | worse by 0.18 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.09 | better by 0.10 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texans win 84% of them, Titans 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texans by 17+ | 38.6% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 24.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Titans by 17+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Texans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 7.5.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 53 yds made · 62% expected
- N. Folk, 45 yds made · 81% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 61% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:05 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams | +26% TEN | HOU: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 1:55 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedD. Hopkins dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 146 catchable balls before this | +18% HOU | TEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 1:06 | The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 43% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +32% HOU | HOU: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 0:45 | The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +44% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 5 | QOT 8:32 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +25% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 6 | QOT 2:00 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +19% HOU | TEN: Punt |
| 7 | QOT 0:50 | Offensive Holding on the Texans (John Metchie), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 227 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +21% TEN | – |
| 8 | QOT 0:02 | K. Fairbairn made 54-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 25 of 39 from 45+ before | +39% HOU | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.7 pts
- Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Ryan Stonehouse (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- C.J. Stroud (HOU QB), out, replaced by c.keenum · 4.7 pts
- Will Anderson (HOU DE), out · 1.1 pts
- Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- George Fant (HOU T), out · 0.6 pts
- Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Blake Cashman (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texans 48% · Titans 52%
- Final margin
- Texans by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 7.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Texans 84% · Titans 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · 
Texans · 
Titans
More from Week 15 2023
- Chargers at Raiders LV 63–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Vikings at Bengals CIN 27–24 · replay 26% for the winner
- Steelers at Colts IND 30–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Broncos at Lions DET 42–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 9–7 · replay 56% for the winner
- Bears at Browns CLE 20–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Chiefs at Patriots KC 27–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NO 24–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 30–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Packers TB 34–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 45–29 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Rams LA 28–20 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cowboys at Bills BUF 31–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ravens at Jaguars BAL 23–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eagles at Seahawks SEA 20–17 · replay 18% for the winner