luckadjusted

Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023

Jets at Dolphins, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 30–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 3.8 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:13 left): the Jets fumbled and the Dolphins recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New York Jets 0
Miami Dolphins 30

December 17, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −7.5

Luck index 0 Dolphins about even · 0 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 17 MIA 23
  2. 2 NYJ 0 MIA 12
  3. 3 NYJ 0 MIA 15
  4. 4 NYJ 7 MIA 25
  5. 5 NYJ 13 MIA 34
  6. 6 NYJ 13 MIA 37
  7. 7 NYJ 0 MIA 27
  8. 8 NYJ 0 MIA 30
  9. 9 NYJ 7 MIA 41
  10. 10 NYJ 0 MIA 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 0% of them, Dolphins 100%. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 30.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.0%
Jets by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Dolphins by 1–81.0%
Dolphins by 9–166.1%
Dolphins by 17+92.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 30. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 31.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Sanders, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 35 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:58 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
2 Q1 9:51 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
3 Q1 9:13 The Jets fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% MIA NYJ: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 6:50 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 5:29 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% MIA NYJ: Punt
6 Q1 3:57 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +3% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 Q2 10:03 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% NYJ MIA: Punt
8 Q2 8:37 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +3% MIA NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Connor Williams (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jevon Holland (MIA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jerome Baker (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (MIA FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Hunt (MIA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Dolphins 100%

Final margin
Dolphins by 30
Luck in points
1.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 31.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 0% · Dolphins 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Jets · Dolphins

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