luckadjusted

Week 15 2023 · December 17, 2023

Commanders at Rams, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Commanders 28–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Rams were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:54 left): the Commanders converted 4th & 2, worth 14 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 20
Los Angeles Rams 28

December 17, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −6.5

Luck index +25 Rams about even · −25 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 26 LA 10
  2. 2 WAS 26 LA 21
  3. 3 WAS 14 LA 16
  4. 4 WAS 20 LA 24
  5. 5 WAS 22 LA 29
  6. 6 WAS 21 LA 31
  7. 7 WAS 14 LA 27
  8. 8 WAS 23 LA 40
  9. 9 WAS 27 LA 50
  10. 10 WAS 24 LA 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 25% of them, Rams 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+3.9%
Commanders by 9–167.0%
Commanders by 1–812.7%
Level after regulation2.3%
Rams by 1–824.9%
Rams by 9–1620.1%
Rams by 17+29.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 12.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% LA LA: Field goal
2 Q1 8:24 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% WAS LA: Field goal
3 Q1 4:35 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LA LA: Turnover
4 Q1 2:54 The Commanders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +14% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 0:40 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +13% LA WAS: Punt
6 Q2 15:00 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% LA LA: Turnover
7 Q2 13:11 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% LA LA: Turnover
8 Q4 3:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3269 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +6% LA LA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tutu Atwell (LA WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Ward (LA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 10% · Rams 90%

Final margin
Rams by 8
Luck in points
4.1 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 25% · Rams 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Commanders · Rams

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