luckadjusted

Week 15 2023 · December 16, 2023

Steelers at Colts, Week 15 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Steelers 30–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 10 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 5.0 points to the Steelers.

An off day for the Steelers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:27 left): the Colts were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 15 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 13
Indianapolis Colts 30

December 16, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1.5

Luck index +4 Colts about even · −4 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 0, Colts win 10.

  1. 1 PIT 10 IND 13
  2. 2 PIT 13 IND 19
  3. 3 PIT 14 IND 23
  4. 4 PIT 13 IND 24
  5. 5 PIT 17 IND 33
  6. 6 PIT 6 IND 24
  7. 7 PIT 7 IND 28
  8. 8 PIT 13 IND 38
  9. 9 PIT 14 IND 43
  10. 10 PIT 0 IND 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

33 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.03 better by 0.02
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.09 worse by 0.05
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.05 better by 0.08
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.08 better by 0.03

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 4% of them, Colts 96%. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.1%
Steelers by 9–160.6%
Steelers by 1–82.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Colts by 1–89.1%
Colts by 9–1619.5%
Colts by 17+67.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 17.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 56 yds missed · 67% expected
  • M. Gay, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:35 M. Gay missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 39 of 53 from 45+ before +9% PIT IND: Punt
2 Q1 5:02 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:13 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 Blocked punt by the SteelersSpecial teams +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:03 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:21 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +10% IND IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 3:27 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedD. Montgomery dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +15% PIT IND: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:28 The Steelers fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% IND PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenny Pickett (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.trubisky · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 1% · Colts 99%

Final margin
Colts by 17
Luck in points
0.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 17.1
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 4% · Colts 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2023 games · Steelers · Colts

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