luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · December 14, 2023–December 18

Week 15 2023: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Vikings 27–24 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 15 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Seahawks 20–17 vs Eagles 36% 31% Lucky
Buccaneers 34–20 @ Packers 38% 74% Deserved
Panthers 9–7 vs Falcons 41% 71% Deserved
Texans 19–16 @ Titans 41% 82% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 27–24 vs Vikings 25% +75
2 Seahawks W 20–17 vs Eagles 31% +69
3 Panthers W 9–7 vs Falcons 71% +29
4 Buccaneers W 34–20 @ Packers 74% +26
5 Texans W 19–16 @ Titans 82% +18
6 Rams W 28–20 vs Commanders 87% +13
7 Browns W 20–17 vs Bears 88% +12
8 Ravens W 23–7 @ Jaguars 92% +8
9 Chiefs W 27–17 @ Patriots 93% +7
10 Raiders W 63–21 vs Chargers 94% +6
11 Lions W 42–17 vs Broncos 94% +6
12 Bills W 31–10 vs Cowboys 97% +3
13 Colts W 30–13 vs Steelers 98% +2
14 Saints W 24–6 vs Giants 99% +1
15 49ers W 45–29 @ Cardinals 99% +1
16 Dolphins W 30–0 vs Jets 100% 0
17 Jets L 0–30 @ Dolphins 0% 0
18 Cardinals L 29–45 vs 49ers 1% −1
19 Giants L 6–24 @ Saints 1% −1
20 Steelers L 13–30 @ Colts 2% −2
21 Cowboys L 10–31 @ Bills 3% −3
22 Broncos L 17–42 @ Lions 6% −6
23 Chargers L 21–63 @ Raiders 6% −6
24 Patriots L 17–27 vs Chiefs 7% −7
25 Jaguars L 7–23 vs Ravens 8% −8
26 Bears L 17–20 @ Browns 12% −12
27 Commanders L 20–28 @ Rams 13% −13
28 Titans L 16–19 vs Texans 18% −18
29 Packers L 20–34 vs Buccaneers 26% −26
30 Falcons L 7–9 @ Panthers 29% −29
31 Eagles L 17–20 @ Seahawks 69% −69
32 Vikings L 24–27 @ Bengals 75% −75