2023 season · final
Los Angeles Rams, 2023: game by game
The Rams went 10–7 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Seahawks | W 30–13 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 2 | vs 49ers | L 23–30 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 3 | @ Bengals | L 16–19 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 4 | @ Colts | W 29–23 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 5 | vs Eagles | L 14–23 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 6 | vs Cardinals | W 26–9 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 7 | vs Steelers | L 17–24 | 79% | −79 |
| Week 8 | @ Cowboys | L 20–43 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 9 | @ Packers | L 3–20 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 11 | vs Seahawks | W 17–16 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 12 | @ Cardinals | W 37–14 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 13 | vs Browns | W 36–19 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 14 | @ Ravens | L 31–37 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 15 | vs Commanders | W 28–20 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 16 | vs Saints | W 30–22 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 17 | @ Giants | W 26–25 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 18 | @ 49ers | W 21–20 | 44% | +56 |
| Wild Card | @ Lions | L 23–24 | 64% | −64 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Rams’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.34 | +4.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.33 | +0.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.19 | +2.8 |
| Injuries | +0.18 | +6.6 |
| Drops | +0.09 | −4.2 |
| Kicks | −0.06 | −10.7 |
| Rest | −0.08 | −3.3 |