luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2023: game by game

The Rams went 10–7 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.0 wins. Luck cost them 0.0: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Seahawks W 30–13 67% +33
Week 2 vs 49ers L 23–30 34% −34
Week 3 @ Bengals L 16–19 69% −69
Week 4 @ Colts W 29–23 77% +23
Week 5 vs Eagles L 14–23 8% −8
Week 6 vs Cardinals W 26–9 88% +12
Week 7 vs Steelers L 17–24 79% −79
Week 8 @ Cowboys L 20–43 15% −15
Week 9 @ Packers L 3–20 25% −25
Week 11 vs Seahawks W 17–16 76% +24
Week 12 @ Cardinals W 37–14 98% +2
Week 13 vs Browns W 36–19 68% +32
Week 14 @ Ravens L 31–37 13% −13
Week 15 vs Commanders W 28–20 75% +25
Week 16 vs Saints W 30–22 64% +36
Week 17 @ Giants W 26–25 88% +12
Week 18 @ 49ers W 21–20 58% +42
Wild Card @ Lions L 23–24 61% −61

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Rams’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+9.6+0.56
Injuries+9.0+0.53
3rd & 4th downs+2.0+0.12
Rest−3.3−0.20
Drops−3.9−0.23
Kicks−11.1−0.65