Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Rams?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.30 wins a season to the Rams since 2019, 6th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +1.8% of a win a game over 12 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Wins from judgment calls each regular season: the calls that helped the Rams minus the calls that hurt them, each weighted by the moment it came.
Biggest calls for the Rams
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Michael Gallup), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 1 · 91 pts of win probability
- Illegal Blindside Block on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 18 · 30 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 17 · 27 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 9 · 24 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 14 · 21 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 4 yards, wiping out the play · 2026 Week 3 · 59 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 17 · 30 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 19 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 10 · 21 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 10 yards · 2020 Week 3 · 20 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 1 · 19 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Rams?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.30 wins a season to the Rams since 2019, 6th of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: +1.8% of a win a game over 12 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued by what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out. The same holding call is worth nothing when the game is decided and most of a win at the turn of a close one. A flag on a frequent offender counts for less (as little as half), because part of it is his habit rather than the official’s judgment; no flag counts for more than it moved the game. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.09 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Los Angeles Rams, every season