luckadjusted

Week 10 2019 · November 10, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Steelers, Week 10 2019: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Rams 17–12, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.4 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:56 left): Return touchdown by the Steelers, worth 50 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 12
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

November 10, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Rams −4

Luck index +78 Steelers very lucky · −78 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 8, Steelers win 2.

  1. 1 LA 40 PIT 10
  2. 2 LA 38 PIT 16
  3. 3 LA 24 PIT 7
  4. 4 LA 30 PIT 17
  5. 5 LA 34 PIT 24
  6. 6 LA 23 PIT 16
  7. 7 LA 27 PIT 23
  8. 8 LA 22 PIT 20
  9. 9 LA 13 PIT 16
  10. 10 LA 7 PIT 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 78% of them, Steelers 22%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+33.4%
Rams by 9–1622.4%
Rams by 1–821.5%
Level after regulation1.3%
Steelers by 1–812.1%
Steelers by 9–166.5%
Steelers by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 6.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 56 yds missed · 59% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:53 The Steelers fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +34% LA PIT: Punt
2 Q1 3:39 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 19 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 326 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +21% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:56 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +50% PIT LA: Punt
5 Q4 8:55 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 8:14 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 1:30 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% PIT LA: Turnover
8 Q4 1:01 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% LA LA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • James Conner (PIT RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ramon Foster (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (LA WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 75% · Steelers 25%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
11.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Rams 78% · Steelers 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2019 games · Rams · Steelers

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