2019 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2019: game by game
The Steelers went 8–8 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Patriots | L 3–33 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 2 | vs Seahawks | L 26–28 | 43% | −43 |
| Week 3 | @ 49ers | L 20–24 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 4 | vs Bengals | W 27–3 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 5 | vs Ravens | L 23–26 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 6 | @ Chargers | W 24–17 | 16% | +84 |
| Week 8 | vs Dolphins | W 27–14 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 9 | vs Colts | W 26–24 | 24% | +76 |
| Week 10 | vs Rams | W 17–12 | 22% | +78 |
| Week 11 | @ Browns | L 7–21 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 12 | @ Bengals | W 16–10 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 13 | vs Browns | W 20–13 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 14 | @ Cardinals | W 23–17 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 15 | vs Bills | L 10–17 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 16 | @ Jets | L 10–16 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 17 | @ Ravens | L 10–28 | 3% | −3 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.95 | +31.7 |
| Judgment calls | +0.49 | +14.4 |
| Kicks | +0.33 | +15.1 |
| Injuries | +0.31 | +10.8 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −0.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.24 | −10.8 |