luckadjusted

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Ravens, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Steelers 28–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 12.0 points to the Steelers.

An off day for the Steelers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Steelers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:00 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 12, worth 11 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Baltimore Ravens 28

December 29, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −2

Luck index +4 Ravens about even · −4 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 PIT 6 BAL 9
  2. 2 PIT 20 BAL 27
  3. 3 PIT 7 BAL 17
  4. 4 PIT 14 BAL 27
  5. 5 PIT 10 BAL 24
  6. 6 PIT 17 BAL 34
  7. 7 PIT 8 BAL 27
  8. 8 PIT 0 BAL 23
  9. 9 PIT 14 BAL 41
  10. 10 PIT 6 BAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

46 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained −0.14 +0.09 worse by 0.23
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.07 better by 0.06
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.17 worse by 0.17
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed −0.14 +0.06 better by 0.20

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 4% of them, Ravens 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.1%
Steelers by 9–160.8%
Steelers by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation0.5%
Ravens by 1–813.1%
Ravens by 9–1620.0%
Ravens by 17+62.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 29.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Boswell, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:43 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% PIT BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 4:19 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q1 0:21 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:38 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% PIT PIT: Punt
5 Q2 3:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% BAL BAL: Field goal
6 Q2 0:54 The Steelers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% BAL PIT: End of half
7 Q2 0:32 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:29 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Steelers, 11 yardsJudgment calls +7% BAL PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by r.griffin iii · 9.0 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Earl Thomas (BAL FS), out · 1.0 pts
  • Marshal Yanda (BAL G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Skura (BAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Williams (BAL DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Maurkice Pouncey (PIT C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Mason Rudolph (PIT QB), out (IR), replaced by d.hodges · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 18
Luck in points
11.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 29.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 4% · Ravens 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Steelers · Ravens

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