Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Raiders at Broncos, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?
The Broncos stole one. They beat the Raiders 16–15, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.8 points to the Broncos.
The Broncos won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Broncos were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:07 left): the Raiders’ two-point try failed, worth 54 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Oakland Raiders | 15 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Broncos very lucky · −87 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 9, Broncos win 1.
- 1 OAK 34 DEN 2
- 2 OAK 38 DEN 14
- 3 OAK 30 DEN 9
- 4 OAK 37 DEN 20
- 5 OAK 28 DEN 13
- 6 OAK 25 DEN 13
- 7 OAK 30 DEN 21
- 8 OAK 15 DEN 10
- 9 OAK 30 DEN 28
- 10 OAK 24 DEN 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Broncos won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
53 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.15 | worse by 0.20 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.18 | better by 0.19 |
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.06 | worse by 0.07 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.10 | better by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 87% of them, Broncos 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 43.8% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 8.4% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Broncos by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 9.0.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 39 yds missed · 86% expected
- D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 97% expected
- B. McManus, 43 yds made · 81% expected
- B. McManus, 49 yds made · 70% expected
- B. McManus, 51 yds made · 67% expected
- D. Carlson, 33 yds made · 92% expected
- D. Carlson, 28 yds made · 96% expected
- B. McManus, 57 yds missed · 57% expected
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:42 | D. Carlson missed 39-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +12% DEN | OAK: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 2:17 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +20% OAK | OAK: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 7:35 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +10% OAK | OAK: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 4:14 | The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +11% DEN | OAK: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 1:24 | The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% DEN | OAK: End of half |
| 6 | Q4 5:14 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +10% OAK | OAK: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:46 | B. McManus missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 9 of 12 from 45+ before | +13% OAK | DEN: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:07 | The Raiders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDisqualification on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 459 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +54% DEN | OAK: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Derek Wolfe (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out · 0.6 pts
- Ronald Leary (DEN G), out · 0.3 pts
- Trent Brown (OAK T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Josh Jacobs (OAK RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Karl Joseph (OAK SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Richie Incognito (OAK G), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 86% · Broncos 14%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 1
- Luck in points
- 10.0 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 9.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 87% · Broncos 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · 
Raiders · 
Broncos
More from Week 17 2019
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 28–22 · replay 14% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 21–19 · replay 9% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 33–23 · replay 49% for the winner
- Packers at Lions GB 23–20 · replay 43% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 42–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jets at Bills NYJ 13–6 · replay 38% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 31–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 38–20 · replay 59% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 34–17 · replay 66% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens BAL 28–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 35–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys DAL 47–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 26–21 · replay 72% for the winner