Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Falcons at Buccaneers, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 28–22, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 33 points of win probability to the Falcons.
The Falcons won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:21 left): Return touchdown by the Buccaneers, worth 56 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final (OT)
 Atlanta Falcons | 28 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Falcons very lucky · −87 Buccaneers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Buccaneers win 9.
- 1 ATL 27 TB 20
- 2 ATL 31 TB 33
- 3 ATL 12 TB 16
- 4 ATL 31 TB 38
- 5 ATL 13 TB 23
- 6 ATL 20 TB 33
- 7 ATL 7 TB 23
- 8 ATL 14 TB 34
- 9 ATL 30 TB 56
- 10 ATL 20 TB 54
Your call
Did the Falcons earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Falcons won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Falcons: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.13 | worse by 0.18 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.15 | worse by 0.05 |
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.18 | better by 0.02 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.12 | better by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 13% of them, Buccaneers 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 7.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 17.6% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 45.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 27 yds made · 96% expected
- M. Gay, 49 yds missed · 70% expected
- Y. Koo, 33 yds made · 93% expected
- Y. Koo, 45 yds made · 79% expected
- M. Gay, 44 yds missed · 80% expected
- M. Gay, 34 yds missed · 92% expected
- Y. Koo, 43 yds made · 82% expected
- Y. Koo, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Falcons 5 for 53 yards, Buccaneers 12 for 97 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:58 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.3 pts |
| Q1 10:58 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 3:09 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers, 7 yards | +2% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:41 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards | +4% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:03 | Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 15 yards | +7% ATL +1.7 pts |
| Q2 5:56 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Buccaneers, 10 yards | +4% ATL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:34 | Illegal Forward Pass on the Falcons (Matt Ryan), 5 yards | +2% TB +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:07 | False Start on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL 0.0 pts |
| Q2 3:07 | Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TB +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:11 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons, 5 yards | +1% TB +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:21 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 33 yards | +4% TB +2.0 pts |
| Q3 5:42 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (O.J. Howard), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ATL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 11:28 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% ATL +2.0 pts |
| Q4 11:02 | Illegal Forward Pass on the Buccaneers (Jameis Winston), 5 yards | +1% ATL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 10:10 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.2 pts |
| Q4 4:01 | Intentional Grounding on the Buccaneers (Jameis Winston), 10 yards | +4% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:59 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% ATL +0.6 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 5:34 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedIllegal Forward Pass on the Falcons (Matt Ryan), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 976 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 | +10% TB | ATL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 3:21 | The Falcons fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams | +56% TB | ATL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 2:23 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 12:17 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +12% TB | ATL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 1:19 | The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +12% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:47 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +22% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:08 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +10% TB | ATL: Field goal |
| 8 | OT 10:00 | Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams | +53% ATL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Mike Evans (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Chris Godwin (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
- Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Desmond Trufant (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- James Carpenter (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jamon Brown (ATL G), out · 0.3 pts
- Adrian Clayborn (ATL DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Takkarist McKinley (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 13% · Buccaneers 87%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 6
- Luck in points
- 13.1 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 13% · Buccaneers 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · 
Falcons · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 17 2019
- Bears at Vikings CHI 21–19 · replay 9% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 33–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Packers at Lions GB 23–20 · replay 40% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 31–21 · replay 81% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 27–24 · replay 43% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 42–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jets at Bills NYJ 13–6 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 31–24 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 38–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 16–15 · replay 14% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 34–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens BAL 28–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 35–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys DAL 47–16 · replay 96% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 26–21 · replay 71% for the winner