luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Bengals, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Browns 33–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites.

Final

Cleveland Browns 23
Cincinnati Bengals 33

December 29, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +55 Bengals lucky · −55 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Bengals win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 31 CIN 7
  2. 2 CLE 33 CIN 17
  3. 3 CLE 16 CIN 6
  4. 4 CLE 37 CIN 31
  5. 5 CLE 15 CIN 13
  6. 6 CLE 10 CIN 13
  7. 7 CLE 13 CIN 19
  8. 8 CLE 14 CIN 24
  9. 9 CLE 12 CIN 27
  10. 10 CLE 10 CIN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 55% of them, Bengals 45%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+12.8%
Browns by 9–1615.2%
Browns by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation5.3%
Bengals by 1–820.2%
Bengals by 9–1614.5%
Bengals by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 10, without the luck Bengals by 6.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • R. Bullock, 47 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Bullock, 46 yds made · 77% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 4 for 33 yards, Bengals 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:19 False Start on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q1 1:33 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 10:06 Offensive Holding on the Browns (T.J. Carrie), 10 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 2:13 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Geno Atkins), 5 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 10:52 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.2 pts
Q3 4:43 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 1:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greedy Williams), 8 yards +2% CIN +1.2 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:21 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:56 The Browns converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% CLE CLE: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Bengals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:38 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:15 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:18 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% CIN CIN: Field goal
7 Q3 9:09 R. Bullock made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 5 of 9 from 45+ before +4% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q4 7:23 The Browns converted 4th & 203rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Auden Tate (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Jerry (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 10% · Bengals 90%

Final margin
Bengals by 10
Luck in points
3.5 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 6.5
Replay with same day's form
Browns 55% · Bengals 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Browns · Bengals

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