luckadjusted

Week 17 2019 · December 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Bengals, Week 17 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Browns 33–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.1 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:38 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cleveland Browns 23
Cincinnati Bengals 33

December 29, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +51 Bengals lucky · −51 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Bengals win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 45 CIN 23
  2. 2 CLE 24 CIN 10
  3. 3 CLE 26 CIN 17
  4. 4 CLE 28 CIN 23
  5. 5 CLE 24 CIN 22
  6. 6 CLE 24 CIN 26
  7. 7 CLE 20 CIN 25
  8. 8 CLE 16 CIN 26
  9. 9 CLE 16 CIN 31
  10. 10 CLE 7 CIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 51% of them, Bengals 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+11.7%
Browns by 9–1614.6%
Browns by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation5.1%
Bengals by 1–820.2%
Bengals by 9–1615.9%
Bengals by 17+10.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 4.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • R. Bullock, 47 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Bullock, 46 yds made · 77% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:21 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:38 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% CIN CLE: Punt
3 Q1 2:56 The Browns converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q2 15:00 The Bengals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:15 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:18 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% CIN CIN: Field goal
7 Q3 5:29 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% CIN CLE: Punt
8 Q4 7:23 The Browns converted 4th & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Auden Tate (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Jerry (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 19% · Bengals 81%

Final margin
Bengals by 10
Luck in points
5.2 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 51% · Bengals 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2019 games · Browns · Bengals

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