luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2019 NFL season · December 29, 2019

Week 17 2019: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Falcons beat the Buccaneers 28–22 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 17 2019 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Dolphins 27–24 @ Patriots 10% 43% Coin flip
Jaguars 38–20 vs Colts 36% 56% Coin flip
Bengals 33–23 vs Browns 43% 45% Coin flip
Ravens 28–10 vs Steelers 44% 97% Deserved
Falcons 28–22 @ Buccaneers 47% 13% Lucky

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 21–19 @ Vikings 9% +91
2 Falcons W 28–22 @ Buccaneers 13% +87
3 Broncos W 16–15 vs Raiders 14% +86
4 Packers W 23–20 @ Lions 40% +60
5 Jets W 13–6 @ Bills 41% +59
6 Dolphins W 27–24 @ Patriots 43% +57
7 Bengals W 33–23 vs Browns 45% +55
8 Jaguars W 38–20 vs Colts 56% +44
9 Eagles W 34–17 @ Giants 60% +40
10 Rams W 31–24 vs Cardinals 62% +38
11 49ers W 26–21 @ Seahawks 71% +29
12 Chiefs W 31–21 vs Chargers 81% +19
13 Titans W 35–14 @ Texans 88% +12
14 Saints W 42–10 @ Panthers 94% +6
15 Cowboys W 47–16 vs Washington 96% +4
16 Ravens W 28–10 vs Steelers 97% +3
17 Steelers L 10–28 @ Ravens 3% −3
18 Washington L 16–47 @ Cowboys 4% −4
19 Panthers L 10–42 vs Saints 6% −6
20 Texans L 14–35 vs Titans 12% −12
21 Chargers L 21–31 @ Chiefs 19% −19
22 Seahawks L 21–26 vs 49ers 29% −29
23 Cardinals L 24–31 @ Rams 38% −38
24 Giants L 17–34 vs Eagles 40% −40
25 Colts L 20–38 @ Jaguars 44% −44
26 Browns L 23–33 @ Bengals 55% −55
27 Patriots L 24–27 vs Dolphins 57% −57
28 Bills L 6–13 vs Jets 59% −59
29 Lions L 20–23 vs Packers 60% −60
30 Raiders L 15–16 @ Broncos 86% −86
31 Buccaneers L 22–28 vs Falcons 87% −87
32 Vikings L 19–21 vs Bears 91% −91