2019 season · final
Houston Texans, 2019: game by game
The Texans went 10–6 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.9 wins. Luck added 1.1: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–3.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Saints | L 28–30 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 2 | vs Jaguars | W 13–12 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 3 | @ Chargers | W 27–20 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 4 | vs Panthers | L 10–16 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 5 | vs Falcons | W 53–32 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 6 | @ Chiefs | W 31–24 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 7 | @ Colts | L 23–30 | 88% | −88 |
| Week 8 | vs Raiders | W 27–24 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 9 | vs Jaguars | W 26–3 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 11 | @ Ravens | L 7–41 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 12 | vs Colts | W 20–17 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 13 | vs Patriots | W 28–22 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 14 | vs Broncos | L 24–38 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 15 | @ Titans | W 24–21 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 16 | @ Buccaneers | W 23–20 | 7% | +93 |
| Week 17 | vs Titans | L 14–35 | 12% | −12 |
| Wild Card | vs Bills | W 22–19 | 62% | +38 |
| Divisional round | @ Chiefs | L 31–51 | 2% | −2 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.47 | +12.3 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.40 | +12.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.11 | −12.2 |
| Injuries | −0.33 | −14.3 |
| Kicks | −0.56 | −5.6 |