2019 season · final

Houston Texans, 2019: game by game

The Texans went 10–6 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–3.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.6.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Saints	L 28–30	47%	−47
Week 2	vs Jaguars	W 13–12	86%	+14
Week 3	@ Chargers	W 27–20	44%	+56
Week 4	vs Panthers	L 10–16	78%	−78
Week 5	vs Falcons	W 53–32	63%	+37
Week 6	@ Chiefs	W 31–24	71%	+29
Week 7	@ Colts	L 23–30	88%	−88
Week 8	vs Raiders	W 27–24	43%	+57
Week 9	@ Jaguars	W 26–3	85%	+15
Week 11	@ Ravens	L 7–41	4%	−4
Week 12	vs Colts	W 20–17	54%	+46
Week 13	vs Patriots	W 28–22	68%	+32
Week 14	vs Broncos	L 24–38	52%	−52
Week 15	@ Titans	W 24–21	70%	+30
Week 16	@ Buccaneers	W 23–20	8%	+92
Week 17	vs Titans	L 14–35	13%	−13
Wild Card	vs Bills	W 22–19	57%	+43
Divisional round	@ Chiefs	L 31–51	2%	−2

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −47 @ NO

Wk 2 +14 vs JAX

Wk 3 +56 @ LAC

Wk 4 −78 vs CAR

Wk 5 +37 vs ATL

Wk 6 +29 @ KC

Wk 7 −88 @ IND

Wk 8 +57 vs OAK

Wk 9 +15 @ JAX

Wk 11 −4 @ BAL

Wk 12 +46 vs IND

Wk 13 +32 vs NE

Wk 14 −52 vs DEN

Wk 15 +30 @ TEN

Wk 16 +92 @ TB

Wk 17 −13 vs TEN

Wild Card +43 vs BUF

Divisional −2 @ KC

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Texans’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+24.2	+1.51
Fumble bounces	+9.4	+0.59
Rest	+0.4	+0.02
Kicks	−5.7	−0.36
3rd & 4th downs	−13.5	−0.85
Injuries	−19.1	−1.19