luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans vs Jaguars, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 26–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:11 left): K. Fairbairn missed a 58-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Houston Texans 26
Jacksonville Jaguars 3

November 3, 2019 · Wembley Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1

Luck index +15 Texans about even · −15 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 HOU 37 JAX 7
  2. 2 HOU 44 JAX 20
  3. 3 HOU 30 JAX 10
  4. 4 HOU 26 JAX 10
  5. 5 HOU 27 JAX 13
  6. 6 HOU 24 JAX 13
  7. 7 HOU 19 JAX 10
  8. 8 HOU 26 JAX 21
  9. 9 HOU 33 JAX 30
  10. 10 HOU 17 JAX 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 85% of them, Jaguars 15%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+40.5%
Texans by 9–1623.7%
Texans by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Jaguars by 1–89.7%
Jaguars by 9–163.9%
Jaguars by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Texans by 23, without the luck Texans by 25.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Lambo, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 58 yds missed · 59% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 7 for 60 yards, Jaguars 4 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:45 Illegal Blindside Block on the Texans, 15 yards +8% JAX +1.5 pts
Q1 10:34 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 9:26 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% JAX +1.0 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:36 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 10:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (DJ Chark), 9 yards, wiping out the play +16% HOU +2.9 pts
Q3 8:56 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Calais Campbell), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.6 pts
Q3 8:43 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +4% JAX +1.1 pts
Q4 8:50 False Start on the Texans (Darren Fells), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 5:02 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards 0% HOU +1.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:19 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 10:45 Illegal Blindside Block on the Texans, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% JAX JAX: Punt
3 Q1 9:26 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q1 8:24 K. Fairbairn made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before +7% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q1 4:21 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 0:11 K. Fairbairn missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before +22% JAX HOU: Field goal
7 Q3 10:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (DJ Chark), 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 464 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +16% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q3 4:15 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% JAX JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcell Dareus (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dede Westbrook (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Geoff Swaim (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • J.J. Watt (HOU DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Mancz (HOU C), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 100% · Jaguars 0%

Final margin
Texans by 23
Luck in points
2.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 25.6
Replay with same day's form
Texans 85% · Jaguars 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Texans · Jaguars

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