luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 4, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Giants, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 37–18, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.2 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:42 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 21 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 37
New York Giants 18

November 4, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −6.5

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 41 NYG 3
  2. 2 DAL 31 NYG 0
  3. 3 DAL 49 NYG 24
  4. 4 DAL 38 NYG 16
  5. 5 DAL 48 NYG 30
  6. 6 DAL 43 NYG 27
  7. 7 DAL 36 NYG 23
  8. 8 DAL 27 NYG 17
  9. 9 DAL 24 NYG 17
  10. 10 DAL 30 NYG 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 96% of them, Giants 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+73.3%
Cowboys by 9–1615.5%
Cowboys by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation0.6%
Giants by 1–82.6%
Giants by 9–160.7%
Giants by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 20.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Maher, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Maher, 54 yds missed · 62% expected
  • A. Rosas, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 52 yds made · 64% expected
  • B. Maher, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Rosas, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Rosas, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:39 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +14% DAL NYG: Punt
2 Q3 11:18 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% DAL NYG: Punt
3 Q3 7:42 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Giants fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% DAL NYG: Field goal
4 Q3 3:49 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q3 3:07 Taunting on the Cowboys (Xavier Woods), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 421 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 11:53 A. Rosas made 29-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for himUnnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 316 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +9% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q4 10:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 514 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:05 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +16% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 19
Luck in points
1.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 20.5
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 96% · Giants 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Cowboys · Giants

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