luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Seahawks, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Buccaneers 40–34, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 41 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Myers missed a 40-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final (OT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34
Seattle Seahawks 40

November 3, 2019 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −4

Luck index +21 Seahawks about even · −21 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 2, Seahawks win 8.

  1. 1 TB 57 SEA 41
  2. 2 TB 26 SEA 22
  3. 3 TB 31 SEA 33
  4. 4 TB 26 SEA 31
  5. 5 TB 25 SEA 34
  6. 6 TB 16 SEA 29
  7. 7 TB 24 SEA 40
  8. 8 TB 27 SEA 45
  9. 9 TB 23 SEA 45
  10. 10 TB 12 SEA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 21% of them, Seahawks 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+2.9%
Buccaneers by 9–165.9%
Buccaneers by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Seahawks by 1–822.8%
Seahawks by 9–1619.3%
Seahawks by 17+36.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Seahawks by 6, without the luck Seahawks by 13.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
  • M. Gay, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Myers, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Myers, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Myers, 40 yds missed · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 10 for 82 yards, Seahawks 4 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:44 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Bobby Wagner), 9 yards +5% TB +1.3 pts
Q1 2:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 16 yards +5% TB +1.0 pts
Q2 10:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 10 yards +3% TB +1.2 pts
Q2 9:42 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 5:00 False Start on the Buccaneers (Antony Auclair), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 0:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 38 yards +8% SEA +3.7 pts
Q2 0:40 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.1 pts
Q3 11:34 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 4:11 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +25% SEA +4.8 pts
Q3 2:01 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 5 yards 0% SEA +0.2 pts
Q3 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% TB +2.8 pts
Q4 12:01 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards +4% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 0:35 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% SEA +0.4 pts
OT 7:45 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards +9% SEA +0.7 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 209 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:11 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +25% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q3 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% TB TB: Punt
4 Q4 10:48 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% SEA TB: Field goal
5 Q4 5:30 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% SEA TB: Field goal
6 Q4 0:03 J. Myers missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +29% TB SEA: Touchdown
7 OT 7:45 Illegal Contact on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 82 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 OT 6:55 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +16% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Britt (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Will Dissly (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Quinton Jefferson (SEA DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • O.J. Howard (TB TE), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 2% · Seahawks 98%

Final margin
Seahawks by 6
Luck in points
7.4 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 13.4
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 21% · Seahawks 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Buccaneers · Seahawks

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