luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Ravens, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Patriots 37–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Patriots.

An off day for the Patriots: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:39 left): Return touchdown by the Ravens, worth 44 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

New England Patriots 20
Baltimore Ravens 37

November 3, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +9 Ravens about even · −9 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 NE 26 BAL 20
  2. 2 NE 17 BAL 19
  3. 3 NE 27 BAL 31
  4. 4 NE 28 BAL 35
  5. 5 NE 10 BAL 20
  6. 6 NE 20 BAL 34
  7. 7 NE 13 BAL 30
  8. 8 NE 13 BAL 34
  9. 9 NE 10 BAL 37
  10. 10 NE 10 BAL 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Patriots

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

42 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.17 worse by 0.02
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed +0.25 +0.03 worse by 0.22
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.25 +0.13 better by 0.12
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.10 worse by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 9% of them, Ravens 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+0.6%
Patriots by 9–162.0%
Patriots by 1–85.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Ravens by 1–816.7%
Ravens by 9–1620.1%
Ravens by 17+53.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 15.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • N. Folk, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • N. Folk, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:36 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Shilique Calhoun), 3 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 302 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:38 The Ravens fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NE BAL: Punt
3 Q2 1:43 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 1:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 417 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% NE NE: Field goal
5 Q3 14:23 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% NE NE: Opp touchdown
6 Q3 13:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% NE NE: Opp touchdown
7 Q3 12:39 The Patriots fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +44% BAL NE: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:33 The Ravens converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tony Jefferson (BAL SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pernell McPhee (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Stephen Gostkowski (NE K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 17
Luck in points
1.2 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 15.8
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 9% · Ravens 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Patriots · Ravens

More from Week 9 2019