luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Steelers, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Colts 26–24, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 6.4 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:14 left): A. Vinatieri missed 43-yard field goal, worth 38 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 24
Pittsburgh Steelers 26

November 3, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −1

Luck index +75 Steelers very lucky · −75 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 7, Steelers win 3.

  1. 1 IND 33 PIT 3
  2. 2 IND 35 PIT 14
  3. 3 IND 28 PIT 12
  4. 4 IND 27 PIT 16
  5. 5 IND 24 PIT 16
  6. 6 IND 26 PIT 21
  7. 7 IND 15 PIT 13
  8. 8 IND 17 PIT 20
  9. 9 IND 31 PIT 37
  10. 10 IND 17 PIT 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 75% of them, Steelers 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+24.6%
Colts by 9–1622.1%
Colts by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation3.9%
Steelers by 1–814.7%
Steelers by 9–166.4%
Steelers by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 8.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Boswell, 51 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 43 yds missed · 80% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:33 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% IND PIT: Field goal
2 Q2 2:36 Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +33% PIT PIT: Opp touchdown
3 Q4 12:04 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% IND PIT: Field goal
4 Q4 8:47 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +17% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Bobby Okereke), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 292 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +13% PIT PIT: Punt
6 Q4 2:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 35 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 454 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +16% IND IND: Missed field goal
7 Q4 1:20 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +13% PIT IND: Missed field goal
8 Q4 1:14 A. Vinatieri missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +38% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ramon Foster (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • James Conner (PIT RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Pierre Desir (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 86% · Steelers 14%

Final margin
Steelers by 2
Luck in points
10.6 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Colts 75% · Steelers 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Colts · Steelers

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