luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Eagles, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Bears 22–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.2 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:52 left): the Eagles converted 4th & 2, worth 9 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Chicago Bears 14
Philadelphia Eagles 22

November 3, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −5

Luck index +10 Eagles about even · −10 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 21 PHI 15
  2. 2 CHI 17 PHI 20
  3. 3 CHI 14 PHI 20
  4. 4 CHI 9 PHI 17
  5. 5 CHI 10 PHI 20
  6. 6 CHI 3 PHI 17
  7. 7 CHI 12 PHI 29
  8. 8 CHI 10 PHI 30
  9. 9 CHI 3 PHI 27
  10. 10 CHI 9 PHI 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 10% of them, Eagles 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.7%
Bears by 9–161.9%
Bears by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation1.1%
Eagles by 1–819.1%
Eagles by 9–1624.1%
Eagles by 17+45.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 8.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:56 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% CHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 10:52 The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% PHI PHI: Field goal
3 Q1 7:24 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% CHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q2 7:34 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Nick Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 250 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:30 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% CHI PHI: Punt
6 Q4 8:52 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% PHI CHI: Punt
7 Q4 4:44 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal
8 Q4 2:24 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nigel Bradham (PHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Sidney Jones (PHI CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hassan Ridgeway (PHI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kyle Long (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 10% · Eagles 90%

Final margin
Eagles by 8
Luck in points
0.8 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Bears 10% · Eagles 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Bears · Eagles

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