Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Raiders, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Lions 31–24, but the replays lean toward the Lions: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:08 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 24 |
|---|---|
 Oakland Raiders | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Raiders very lucky · −61 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 6, Raiders win 4.
- 1 DET 31 OAK 7
- 2 DET 37 OAK 21
- 3 DET 21 OAK 9
- 4 DET 38 OAK 30
- 5 DET 27 OAK 22
- 6 DET 27 OAK 24
- 7 DET 24 OAK 26
- 8 DET 24 OAK 30
- 9 DET 17 OAK 28
- 10 DET 27 OAK 46
Your call
Did the Raiders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 61% of them, Raiders 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 17.4% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 24.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Raiders by 17+ | 5.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- D. Carlson, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
- M. Prater, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Lions 5 for 35 yards, Raiders 10 for 96 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Da'Shawn Hand), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% OAK +1.2 pts |
| Q2 14:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jarrad Davis), 5 yards | +6% OAK +1.2 pts |
| Q2 14:56 | False Start on the Raiders (Tyrell Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:26 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +4% OAK +1.3 pts |
| Q2 11:47 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% OAK +1.7 pts |
| Q2 7:53 | Encroachment on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:56 | Tripping on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 10 yards | +2% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:26 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Foster Moreau), 10 yards | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:23 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Tyrell Williams), 10 yards | +3% DET +1.2 pts |
| Q3 9:38 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% OAK +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:48 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards | +4% DET +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:28 | Defensive Offside on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:46 | Fair Catch Interference on the Raiders, 15 yards | +5% DET +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:32 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Lamarcus Joyner), 5 yards | +1% DET +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 26 yards | +10% DET +1.9 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Raiders’ chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:32 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% OAK | OAK: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 3:19 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% OAK | OAK: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:59 | The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +9% DET | DET: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 9:12 | The Lions converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 2:10 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +10% OAK | OAK: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:17 | The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 0:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 71 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 | +10% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:08 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +12% OAK | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rodney Hudson (OAK C), out · 0.6 pts
- Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Graham Glasgow (DET G), out · 0.3 pts
- Tracy Walker (DET FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 30% · Raiders 70%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 3.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 61% · Raiders 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · 
Lions · 
Raiders
More from Week 9 2019
- 49ers at Cardinals SF 28–25 · replay 58% for the winner
- Texans vs Jaguars HOU 26–3 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bears at Eagles PHI 22–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colts at Steelers PIT 26–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- Vikings at Chiefs KC 26–23 · replay 55% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 26–18 · replay 82% for the winner
- Titans at Panthers CAR 30–20 · replay 46% for the winner
- Washington at Bills BUF 24–9 · replay 65% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Seahawks SEA 40–34 · replay 79% for the winner
- Browns at Broncos DEN 24–19 · replay 68% for the winner
- Packers at Chargers LAC 26–11 · replay 87% for the winner
- Patriots at Ravens BAL 37–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 37–18 · replay 96% for the winner