luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Raiders, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Lions 31–24, but the Lions played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 6.3 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:10 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 9, worth 13 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Detroit Lions 24
Oakland Raiders 31

November 3, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum · Closing line: Raiders −2.5

Luck index +60 Raiders very lucky · −60 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 6, Raiders win 4.

  1. 1 DET 33 OAK 10
  2. 2 DET 45 OAK 27
  3. 3 DET 26 OAK 14
  4. 4 DET 28 OAK 20
  5. 5 DET 23 OAK 17
  6. 6 DET 24 OAK 21
  7. 7 DET 20 OAK 23
  8. 8 DET 21 OAK 28
  9. 9 DET 10 OAK 24
  10. 10 DET 31 OAK 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 60% of them, Raiders 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+16.4%
Lions by 9–1616.4%
Lions by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation3.0%
Raiders by 1–819.7%
Raiders by 9–1611.3%
Raiders by 17+7.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 6.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 45 yds missed · 79% expected
  • M. Prater, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:53 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% DET DET: Turnover
2 Q1 2:38 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:45 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% OAK DET: Field goal
4 Q3 2:07 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% OAK OAK: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:56 The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% OAK OAK: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:10 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% OAK OAK: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 71 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +10% DET DET: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:08 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% OAK –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rodney Hudson (OAK C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DET G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 14% · Raiders 86%

Final margin
Raiders by 7
Luck in points
0.3 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Lions 60% · Raiders 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Lions · Raiders

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