luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Bills, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat Washington 24–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. Washington had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 1.7 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Bills were 78% favorites.

Final

Washington Redskins 9
Buffalo Bills 24

November 3, 2019 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10.5

Luck index +35 Bills lucky · −35 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 26 BUF 10
  2. 2 WAS 13 BUF 6
  3. 3 WAS 9 BUF 6
  4. 4 WAS 10 BUF 12
  5. 5 WAS 13 BUF 17
  6. 6 WAS 0 BUF 6
  7. 7 WAS 14 BUF 24
  8. 8 WAS 6 BUF 19
  9. 9 WAS 7 BUF 24
  10. 10 WAS 0 BUF 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 35% of them, Bills 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+3.7%
Washington by 9–1610.2%
Washington by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Bills by 1–827.3%
Bills by 9–1621.2%
Bills by 17+15.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 10.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Hauschka, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 39 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:06 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:06 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% BUF BUF: Field goal
4 Q2 11:30 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% BUF WAS: Field goal
5 Q2 4:52 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q3 10:58 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% WAS BUF: Punt
7 Q4 9:34 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BUF BUF: Punt
8 Q4 8:41 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% WAS BUF: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duke Williams (BUF WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cody Ford (BUF T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Case Keenum (WAS QB), out, replaced by d.haskins · 2.7 pts
  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Montae Nicholson (WAS FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Wes Martin (WAS G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Thompson (WAS RB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 15
Luck in points
4.9 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 10.1
Replay with same day's form
Washington 35% · Bills 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Washington · Bills

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