luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Broncos, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Browns 24–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.2 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Browns were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:09 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 15 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Cleveland Browns 19
Denver Broncos 24

November 3, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Browns −4

Luck index +35 Broncos lucky · −35 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 3, Broncos win 7.

  1. 1 CLE 21 DEN 3
  2. 2 CLE 34 DEN 24
  3. 3 CLE 23 DEN 20
  4. 4 CLE 17 DEN 19
  5. 5 CLE 17 DEN 21
  6. 6 CLE 10 DEN 17
  7. 7 CLE 19 DEN 30
  8. 8 CLE 5 DEN 20
  9. 9 CLE 19 DEN 39
  10. 10 CLE 3 DEN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 35% of them, Broncos 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+5.1%
Browns by 9–1610.1%
Browns by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Broncos by 1–824.3%
Broncos by 9–1619.4%
Broncos by 17+19.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 6.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:41 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:39 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% CLE CLE: Field goal
4 Q3 12:26 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% CLE DEN: Punt
5 Q3 5:23 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +13% DEN CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:11 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Troy Fumagalli), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 58 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +8% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:09 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +15% DEN CLE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 3:23 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Flacco (DEN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Will Parks (DEN FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Damarious Randall (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damion Ratley (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Eric Murray (CLE FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 7% · Broncos 93%

Final margin
Broncos by 5
Luck in points
1.7 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Browns 35% · Broncos 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Browns · Broncos

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