luckadjusted

Week 9 2019 · November 3, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Dolphins, Week 9 2019: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 26–18 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.1 points to the Jets.

An off day for the Jets: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Dolphins they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:52 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New York Jets 18
Miami Dolphins 26

November 3, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Jets −3.5

Luck index +20 Dolphins about even · −20 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Dolphins win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 26 MIA 13
  2. 2 NYJ 21 MIA 17
  3. 3 NYJ 6 MIA 8
  4. 4 NYJ 16 MIA 20
  5. 5 NYJ 16 MIA 23
  6. 6 NYJ 0 MIA 10
  7. 7 NYJ 6 MIA 19
  8. 8 NYJ 13 MIA 29
  9. 9 NYJ 3 MIA 24
  10. 10 NYJ 0 MIA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Dolphins they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.

33 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.04 +0.02 better by 0.02
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.15 worse by 0.02
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.04 better by 0.13
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed +0.04 +0.20 better by 0.15

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 20% of them, Dolphins 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+1.4%
Jets by 9–166.0%
Jets by 1–811.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Dolphins by 1–826.9%
Dolphins by 9–1621.8%
Dolphins by 17+30.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 5.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 49 yds missed · 70% expected
  • S. Ficken, 52 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Sanders, 49 yds missed · 68% expected
  • S. Ficken, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Sanders, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • S. Ficken, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:33 The Jets converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:42 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 331 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +10% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:53 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% MIA NYJ: Missed field goal
4 Q1 2:10 S. Ficken missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +7% MIA NYJ: Punt
5 Q2 14:52 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:40 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:52 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (DeVante Parker), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 376 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Kilgore (MIA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Avery Moss (MIA DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shaq Calhoun (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trumaine Johnson (NYJ CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kelvin Beachum (NYJ T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Kalil (NYJ C), out · 0.6 pts
  • C.J. Mosley (NYJ LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Neville Hewitt (NYJ LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 23% · Dolphins 77%

Final margin
Dolphins by 8
Luck in points
2.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 20% · Dolphins 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2019 games · Jets · Dolphins

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