2019 season · final
Miami Dolphins, 2019: game by game
The Dolphins went 5–11 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–2.
Every game
How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Ravens | L 10–59 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Patriots | L 0–43 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 3 | @ Cowboys | L 6–31 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Chargers | L 10–30 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 6 | vs Washington | L 16–17 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 7 | @ Bills | L 21–31 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 8 | @ Steelers | L 14–27 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 9 | vs Jets | W 26–18 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 10 | @ Colts | W 16–12 | 8% | +92 |
| Week 11 | vs Bills | L 20–37 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 12 | @ Browns | L 24–41 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 13 | vs Eagles | W 37–31 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 14 | @ Jets | L 21–22 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 15 | @ Giants | L 20–36 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 16 | vs Bengals | W 38–35 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 17 | @ Patriots | W 27–24 | 43% | +57 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +35.8 | +2.23 |
| Rest | −2.0 | −0.12 |
| Injuries | −2.3 | −0.14 |
| Kicks | −4.0 | −0.25 |
| Fumble bounces | −4.7 | −0.29 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −6.0 | −0.38 |