luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Dolphins, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Dolphins 17–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, Washington win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.1 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff Washington were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): the Dolphins’ two-point try failed, worth 24 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Redskins 17
Miami Dolphins 16

October 13, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Washington −6

Luck index +11 Washington about even · −11 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 9, Dolphins win 1.

  1. 1 WAS 33 MIA 0
  2. 2 WAS 33 MIA 10
  3. 3 WAS 26 MIA 6
  4. 4 WAS 24 MIA 8
  5. 5 WAS 23 MIA 10
  6. 6 WAS 27 MIA 16
  7. 7 WAS 14 MIA 6
  8. 8 WAS 19 MIA 14
  9. 9 WAS 16 MIA 14
  10. 10 WAS 3 MIA 12

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 89% of them, Dolphins 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+49.5%
Washington by 9–1621.2%
Washington by 1–816.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Dolphins by 1–87.3%
Dolphins by 9–162.7%
Dolphins by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 9.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 55 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:54 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% WAS MIA: Punt
2 Q1 2:40 The Dolphins converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +9% MIA MIA: Punt
3 Q1 0:59 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Preston Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:14 The Dolphins converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% MIA MIA: Turnover
5 Q3 13:26 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% WAS MIA: Punt
6 Q3 10:25 Face Mask on the Dolphins, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 D. Hopkins missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +5% MIA WAS: Punt
8 Q4 0:06 The Dolphins’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +24% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Jakeem Grant (MIA WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Greg Stroman (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Martin (WAS G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 91% · Dolphins 9%

Final margin
Washington by 1
Luck in points
8.2 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 9.2
Replay with same day's form
Washington 89% · Dolphins 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Washington · Dolphins

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