luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Dolphins, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Dolphins 17–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff Washington was a 67% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): the Dolphins’ two-point try failed, worth 24 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Redskins 17
Miami Dolphins 16

October 13, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Washington −6

Luck index +12 Washington about even · −12 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 9, Dolphins win 1.

  1. 1 WAS 41 MIA 13
  2. 2 WAS 33 MIA 12
  3. 3 WAS 19 MIA 0
  4. 4 WAS 23 MIA 7
  5. 5 WAS 20 MIA 6
  6. 6 WAS 23 MIA 12
  7. 7 WAS 23 MIA 14
  8. 8 WAS 15 MIA 10
  9. 9 WAS 30 MIA 28
  10. 10 WAS 10 MIA 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 88% of them, Dolphins 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+51.0%
Washington by 9–1620.6%
Washington by 1–816.1%
Level after regulation1.2%
Dolphins by 1–87.5%
Dolphins by 9–162.7%
Dolphins by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.6 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Washington by 1, without the luck Washington by 9.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 55 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 6 for 56 yards, Dolphins 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:11 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards +2% MIA +1.6 pts
Q1 10:22 Illegal Block Above the Waist on Washington (Kelvin Harmon), 10 yards +3% MIA +0.9 pts
Q1 7:46 Offensive Holding on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 10 yards +2% MIA +0.8 pts
Q1 0:59 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Preston Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% WAS +2.2 pts
Q2 4:02 Defensive Holding on Washington (Fabian Moreau), 4 yards +3% MIA +0.9 pts
Q2 3:57 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Ryan Anderson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIA +1.4 pts
Q3 13:53 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +1.2 pts
Q3 10:25 Face Mask on the Dolphins, 15 yards +6% WAS +1.7 pts
Q3 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +2% WAS +1.3 pts
Q4 11:32 Defensive Holding on Washington (Josh Norman), 2 yards +1% MIA +0.3 pts
Q4 10:56 Offside on Free Kick on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:40 The Dolphins converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 0:59 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Preston Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:14 The Dolphins converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% MIA MIA: Turnover
4 Q3 10:25 Face Mask on the Dolphins, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q4 15:00 D. Hopkins missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +5% MIA WAS: Punt
6 Q4 10:01 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% MIA WAS: Punt
7 Q4 6:38 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +4% MIA WAS: Punt
8 Q4 0:06 The Dolphins’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +24% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Jakeem Grant (MIA WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Danny Isidora (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Greg Stroman (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Martin (WAS G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 93% · Dolphins 7%

Final margin
Washington by 1
Luck in points
8.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Washington 88% · Dolphins 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Washington · Dolphins

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