luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Cardinals, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Falcons 34–33, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:53 left): the Falcons missed an extra point, worth 17 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 33
Arizona Cardinals 34

October 13, 2019 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +69 Cardinals very lucky · −69 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 ATL 42 ARI 14
  2. 2 ATL 42 ARI 23
  3. 3 ATL 42 ARI 27
  4. 4 ATL 37 ARI 26
  5. 5 ATL 30 ARI 23
  6. 6 ATL 27 ARI 23
  7. 7 ATL 28 ARI 26
  8. 8 ATL 23 ARI 26
  9. 9 ATL 24 ARI 30
  10. 10 ATL 30 ARI 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 69% of them, Cardinals 31%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+23.3%
Falcons by 9–1620.5%
Falcons by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation5.1%
Cardinals by 1–815.1%
Cardinals by 9–167.1%
Cardinals by 17+4.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Bryant, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Bryant, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:25 The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:19 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q2 13:08 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:44 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% ARI ATL: Punt
5 Q4 9:30 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% ATL ARI: Punt
6 Q4 5:18 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +15% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:53 The Falcons missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +17% ARI –
8 Q4 1:45 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% ARI ARI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Kirk (ARI WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Desmond Trufant (ATL CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Wile (ATL P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 48% · Cardinals 52%

Final margin
Cardinals by 1
Luck in points
0.6 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 69% · Cardinals 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Falcons · Cardinals

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