luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Cardinals, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Falcons 34–33, but the replays lean toward the Falcons: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:53 left): the Falcons missed an extra point, worth 17 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 33
Arizona Cardinals 34

October 13, 2019 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +71 Cardinals very lucky · −71 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Cardinals win 3.

  1. 1 ATL 40 ARI 14
  2. 2 ATL 47 ARI 28
  3. 3 ATL 34 ARI 20
  4. 4 ATL 27 ARI 16
  5. 5 ATL 37 ARI 30
  6. 6 ATL 31 ARI 28
  7. 7 ATL 34 ARI 33
  8. 8 ATL 24 ARI 27
  9. 9 ATL 24 ARI 31
  10. 10 ATL 14 ARI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 71% of them, Cardinals 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+22.9%
Falcons by 9–1620.1%
Falcons by 1–826.0%
Level after regulation4.3%
Cardinals by 1–814.7%
Cardinals by 9–168.3%
Cardinals by 17+3.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Cardinals by 1, without the luck Cardinals by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Bryant, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Bryant, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 8 for 72 yards, Cardinals 8 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:57 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Terrell Suggs), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% ATL +1.0 pts
Q1 10:32 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Chandler Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ATL +1.0 pts
Q1 5:41 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cardinals (Rodney Gunter), 5 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q1 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +6% ARI +1.4 pts
Q1 4:49 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.1 pts
Q1 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 7 yards, wiping out the play +5% ATL +1.9 pts
Q2 8:30 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q2 7:03 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Budda Baker), 15 yards +4% ATL +1.8 pts
Q3 13:45 Illegal Contact on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 5 yards +3% ARI +1.6 pts
Q3 7:05 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Larry Fitzgerald), 10 yards 0% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 5:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (D.J. White), 7 yards +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 11:39 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cardinals (Rodney Gunter), 5 yards +4% ATL +0.7 pts
Q4 9:27 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (Justin Hardy), 10 yards +7% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 9:27 False Start on the Cardinals (Brooks Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.4 pts
Q4 7:27 Fair Catch Interference on the Falcons, 15 yards +2% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 6:22 Horse Collar Tackle on the Falcons (Vic Beasley), 15 yards +5% ARI +0.9 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:25 The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:19 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q1 5:25 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:44 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +6% ARI ATL: Punt
5 Q4 9:30 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% ATL ARI: Punt
6 Q4 5:18 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:53 The Falcons missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +17% ARI –
8 Q4 1:45 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% ARI ARI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Kirk (ARI WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Desmond Trufant (ATL CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Wile (ATL P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 42% · Cardinals 58%

Final margin
Cardinals by 1
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 71% · Cardinals 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Falcons · Cardinals

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