luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 14, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Packers, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Lions 23–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 2.3 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): M. Crosby made 23-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Detroit Lions 22
Green Bay Packers 23

October 14, 2019 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +44 Packers lucky · −44 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 4, Packers win 6.

  1. 1 DET 27 GB 7
  2. 2 DET 34 GB 23
  3. 3 DET 23 GB 17
  4. 4 DET 34 GB 31
  5. 5 DET 23 GB 26
  6. 6 DET 26 GB 31
  7. 7 DET 7 GB 16
  8. 8 DET 7 GB 20
  9. 9 DET 10 GB 27
  10. 10 DET 14 GB 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 44% of them, Packers 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+8.1%
Lions by 9–1613.9%
Lions by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation2.9%
Packers by 1–824.8%
Packers by 9–1614.8%
Packers by 17+16.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 7.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Crosby, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Crosby, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Prater, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Prater, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • M. Prater, 54 yds made · 66% expected
  • M. Crosby, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:41 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:11 The Packers fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% DET GB: Punt
3 Q3 1:05 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% GB DET: Punt
4 Q4 13:22 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +21% DET GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Trey Flowers), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 191 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +8% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:10 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +19% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 8:20 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% DET DET: Punt
8 Q4 0:02 M. Crosby made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +26% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Equanimeous St. Brown (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (DET SS), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 24% · Packers 76%

Final margin
Packers by 1
Luck in points
6.6 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Lions 44% · Packers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Lions · Packers

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