luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Browns, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Browns 32–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:33 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 32
Cleveland Browns 28

October 13, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +40 Seahawks lucky · −40 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Browns win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 48 CLE 24
  2. 2 SEA 44 CLE 27
  3. 3 SEA 27 CLE 14
  4. 4 SEA 37 CLE 28
  5. 5 SEA 41 CLE 35
  6. 6 SEA 20 CLE 17
  7. 7 SEA 27 CLE 30
  8. 8 SEA 20 CLE 27
  9. 9 SEA 24 CLE 36
  10. 10 SEA 22 CLE 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 60% of them, Browns 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+17.4%
Seahawks by 9–1616.1%
Seahawks by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Browns by 1–818.4%
Browns by 9–1612.4%
Browns by 17+8.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 4, without the luck Browns by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Myers, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 10 for 65 yards, Browns 9 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:49 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Mychal Kendricks), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA 0.0 pts
Q1 9:20 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 14:54 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (David Moore), 10 yards +2% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 14:31 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 13:28 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Larry Ogunjobi), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.8 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% SEA +1.1 pts
Q3 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +5% CLE +1.8 pts
Q3 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% SEA +2.0 pts
Q3 6:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (T.J. Carrie), 5 yards +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 5:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% SEA +2.5 pts
Q3 4:54 Illegal Blindside Block on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 13 yards +1% SEA +1.2 pts
Q3 1:01 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Jadeveon Clowney), 15 yards +4% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 12:34 Encroachment on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 10:44 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 0 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% CLE +2.1 pts
Q4 9:02 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jamar Taylor), 5 yards +6% CLE +1.1 pts
Q4 7:55 Horse Collar Tackle on the Browns (Morgan Burnett), 15 yards +7% SEA +1.0 pts
Q4 7:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns (Eric Murray), 5 yards +2% SEA +0.3 pts
Q4 6:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play +19% CLE +2.1 pts
Q4 3:30 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% SEA +1.2 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:04 The Browns converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q3 5:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% SEA SEA: Turnover
3 Q4 14:24 The Browns converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 10:44 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 0 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +15% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 10:43 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +19% SEA CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:02 The Browns’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jamar Taylor), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 131 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +12% CLE CLE: Turnover
7 Q4 6:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% CLE CLE: Turnover
8 Q4 3:30 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% SEA SEA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Genard Avery (CLE LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Duane Brown (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • D.J. Fluker (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 46% · Browns 54%

Final margin
Seahawks by 4
Luck in points
5.8 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 60% · Browns 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Seahawks · Browns

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