luckadjusted

Week 6 2019 · October 13, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Browns, Week 6 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Browns 32–28, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.5 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:07 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 27 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 32
Cleveland Browns 28

October 13, 2019 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +42 Seahawks lucky · −42 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Browns win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 44 CLE 16
  2. 2 SEA 38 CLE 20
  3. 3 SEA 37 CLE 23
  4. 4 SEA 39 CLE 30
  5. 5 SEA 22 CLE 17
  6. 6 SEA 36 CLE 34
  7. 7 SEA 28 CLE 31
  8. 8 SEA 16 CLE 23
  9. 9 SEA 13 CLE 26
  10. 10 SEA 10 CLE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 58% of them, Browns 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+16.5%
Seahawks by 9–1615.7%
Seahawks by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Browns by 1–818.1%
Browns by 9–1612.9%
Browns by 17+9.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 3.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Myers, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:04 The Browns converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:27 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:07 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:07 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +27% CLE SEA: Punt
5 Q4 10:44 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 0 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +15% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 10:43 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +20% SEA CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:02 The Browns’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jamar Taylor), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 131 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +12% CLE CLE: Turnover
8 Q4 6:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% CLE CLE: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Genard Avery (CLE LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Duane Brown (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • D.J. Fluker (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 37% · Browns 63%

Final margin
Seahawks by 4
Luck in points
7.4 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 58% · Browns 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2019 games · Seahawks · Browns

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