2019 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2019: game by game

The Seahawks went 11–5 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.1 wins. Luck added 3.9: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 10–2.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.3.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bengals	W 21–20	38%	+62
Week 2	@ Steelers	W 28–26	55%	+45
Week 3	vs Saints	L 27–33	31%	−31
Week 4	@ Cardinals	W 27–10	46%	+54
Week 5	vs Rams	W 30–29	43%	+57
Week 6	@ Browns	W 32–28	58%	+42
Week 7	vs Ravens	L 16–30	36%	−36
Week 8	@ Falcons	W 27–20	37%	+63
Week 9	vs Buccaneers	W 40–34	80%	+20
Week 10	@ 49ers	W 27–24	44%	+56
Week 12	@ Eagles	W 17–9	53%	+47
Week 13	vs Vikings	W 37–30	60%	+40
Week 14	@ Rams	L 12–28	13%	−13
Week 15	@ Panthers	W 30–24	79%	+21
Week 16	vs Cardinals	L 13–27	7%	−7
Week 17	vs 49ers	L 21–26	28%	−28
Wild Card	@ Eagles	W 17–9	69%	+31
Divisional round	@ Packers	L 23–28	57%	−57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +62 vs CIN

Wk 2 +45 @ PIT

Wk 3 −31 vs NO

Wk 4 +54 @ ARI

Wk 5 +57 vs LA

Wk 6 +42 @ CLE

Wk 7 −36 vs BAL

Wk 8 +63 @ ATL

Wk 9 +20 vs TB

Wk 10 +56 @ SF

Wk 12 +47 @ PHI

Wk 13 +40 vs MIN

Wk 14 −13 @ LA

Wk 15 +21 @ CAR

Wk 16 −7 vs ARI

Wk 17 −28 vs SF

Wild Card +31 @ PHI

Divisional −57 @ GB

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+14.4	+0.90
Fumble bounces	+9.4	+0.59
3rd & 4th downs	+0.5	+0.03
Rest	−0.2	−0.01
Injuries	−0.6	−0.04
Judgment calls	−3.0	−0.19