2019 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2019: game by game

The Seahawks went 11–5 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.2 wins. Luck added 3.8: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 10–2.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.3.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Bengals	W 21–20	40%	+60
Week 2	@ Steelers	W 28–26	57%	+43
Week 3	vs Saints	L 27–33	33%	−33
Week 4	@ Cardinals	W 27–10	43%	+57
Week 5	vs Rams	W 30–29	44%	+56
Week 6	@ Browns	W 32–28	60%	+40
Week 7	vs Ravens	L 16–30	37%	−37
Week 8	@ Falcons	W 27–20	36%	+64
Week 9	vs Buccaneers	W 40–34	79%	+21
Week 10	@ 49ers	W 27–24	47%	+53
Week 12	@ Eagles	W 17–9	53%	+47
Week 13	vs Vikings	W 37–30	59%	+41
Week 14	@ Rams	L 12–28	13%	−13
Week 15	@ Panthers	W 30–24	80%	+20
Week 16	vs Cardinals	L 13–27	7%	−7
Week 17	vs 49ers	L 21–26	29%	−29
Wild Card	@ Eagles	W 17–9	68%	+32
Divisional round	@ Packers	L 23–28	59%	−59

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +60 vs CIN

Wk 2 +43 @ PIT

Wk 3 −33 vs NO

Wk 4 +57 @ ARI

Wk 5 +56 vs LA

Wk 6 +40 @ CLE

Wk 7 −37 vs BAL

Wk 8 +64 @ ATL

Wk 9 +21 vs TB

Wk 10 +53 @ SF

Wk 12 +47 @ PHI

Wk 13 +41 vs MIN

Wk 14 −13 @ LA

Wk 15 +20 @ CAR

Wk 16 −7 vs ARI

Wk 17 −29 vs SF

Wild Card +32 @ PHI

Divisional −59 @ GB

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.49	+14.2
Fumble bounces	+0.20	+12.6
3rd & 4th downs	+0.16	−0.2
Judgment calls	−0.08	−1.3