luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Steelers, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Steelers 28–26, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:54 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Terrell Edmunds), 38 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 28
Pittsburgh Steelers 26

September 15, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −4

Luck index +43 Seahawks lucky · −43 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Steelers win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 34 PIT 6
  2. 2 SEA 39 PIT 21
  3. 3 SEA 27 PIT 13
  4. 4 SEA 28 PIT 20
  5. 5 SEA 49 PIT 44
  6. 6 SEA 22 PIT 20
  7. 7 SEA 17 PIT 19
  8. 8 SEA 17 PIT 23
  9. 9 SEA 16 PIT 27
  10. 10 SEA 24 PIT 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 57% of them, Steelers 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+15.2%
Seahawks by 9–1617.0%
Seahawks by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation2.5%
Steelers by 1–819.8%
Steelers by 9–1613.5%
Steelers by 17+8.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Seahawks by 2, without the luck Seahawks by 10.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Myers, 58 yds missed · 63% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 10 for 93 yards, Steelers 5 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks, 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 8:57 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +2% PIT +1.2 pts
Q1 5:00 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 6 yards, wiping out the play +5% SEA +1.6 pts
Q1 0:22 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Steelers (Sean Davis), 10 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.5 pts
Q2 14:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Mychal Kendricks), 16 yards +8% PIT +2.4 pts
Q2 8:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Daniel McCullers), 14 yards +8% SEA +2.6 pts
Q2 5:54 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks, 5 yards +1% PIT +0.3 pts
Q2 3:29 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Vance McDonald), 10 yards +7% SEA +1.7 pts
Q2 2:23 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks, 7 yards +2% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 0:12 Face Mask on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +6% PIT +1.4 pts
Q4 10:02 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 9:41 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 8:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Terrell Edmunds), 38 yards +13% SEA +3.2 pts
Q4 2:21 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% PIT +1.6 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Mychal Kendricks), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 72 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Daniel McCullers), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 16 snaps before, position avg 1 per 411 +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:32 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:16 The Steelers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% SEA PIT: Punt
5 Q4 8:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Terrell Edmunds), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 78 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +13% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:49 The Seahawks fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% PIT SEA: End of game
7 Q4 2:21 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% PIT –
8 Q4 2:00 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% SEA SEA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Moore (SEA WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 95% · Steelers 5%

Final margin
Seahawks by 2
Luck in points
8.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 57% · Steelers 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Seahawks · Steelers

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