luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Steelers, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Steelers 28–26, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.3 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:04 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 2, worth 18 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 28
Pittsburgh Steelers 26

September 15, 2019 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −4

Luck index +45 Seahawks lucky · −45 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Steelers win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 29 PIT 3
  2. 2 SEA 41 PIT 22
  3. 3 SEA 24 PIT 10
  4. 4 SEA 27 PIT 17
  5. 5 SEA 37 PIT 31
  6. 6 SEA 33 PIT 31
  7. 7 SEA 14 PIT 16
  8. 8 SEA 21 PIT 27
  9. 9 SEA 10 PIT 22
  10. 10 SEA 0 PIT 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 55% of them, Steelers 45%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+13.7%
Seahawks by 9–1615.1%
Seahawks by 1–821.4%
Level after regulation5.3%
Steelers by 1–820.2%
Steelers by 9–1613.6%
Steelers by 17+10.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 8.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Myers, 58 yds missed · 60% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Mychal Kendricks), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 72 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Daniel McCullers), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 16 snaps before, position avg 1 per 411 +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:40 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% SEA PIT: Field goal
4 Q3 3:04 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +18% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Terrell Edmunds), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 78 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +13% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:22 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:49 The Seahawks fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PIT SEA: End of game
8 Q4 2:00 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% SEA SEA: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ed Dickson (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Moore (SEA WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tedric Thompson (SEA FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 82% · Steelers 18%

Final margin
Seahawks by 2
Luck in points
6.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 55% · Steelers 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Seahawks · Steelers

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