luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Titans, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 19–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Titans.

An off day for the Titans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:13 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 24 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 19
Tennessee Titans 17

September 15, 2019 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +20 Colts about even · −20 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 IND 41 TEN 13
  2. 2 IND 26 TEN 3
  3. 3 IND 48 TEN 31
  4. 4 IND 36 TEN 23
  5. 5 IND 34 TEN 24
  6. 6 IND 31 TEN 24
  7. 7 IND 27 TEN 23
  8. 8 IND 30 TEN 28
  9. 9 IND 17 TEN 20
  10. 10 IND 31 TEN 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.

38 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.12 +0.17 worse by 0.05
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed −0.08 +0.13 better by 0.21
Titans offenseEPA per play gained −0.08 +0.10 worse by 0.17
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.12 +0.10 worse by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 80% of them, Titans 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+36.1%
Colts by 9–1620.4%
Colts by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation1.7%
Titans by 1–810.8%
Titans by 9–165.4%
Titans by 17+2.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 3.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 49 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Santos, 45 yds missed · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Adoree' Jackson), 46 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 72 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +10% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:52 The Colts converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +12% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:26 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% TEN IND: End of half
4 Q3 7:21 The Colts fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% TEN IND: Punt
5 Q4 11:19 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% IND TEN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 10:35 C. Santos missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +7% IND TEN: Punt
7 Q4 2:24 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% IND IND: Punt
8 Q4 0:13 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +24% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jabaal Sheard (IND DE), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 65% · Titans 35%

Final margin
Colts by 2
Luck in points
1.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 80% · Titans 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Colts · Titans

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